By Feng Zhouping
The European Union seems to have reached a consensus: It must
solve its constitution issue before further expansion. There is no
question about the long-term benefits EU will gain from a growing
membership, but the decision-making elites of the alliance have
realized they must balance EU's future interests within the limits
of public acceptance.
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So, EU's strategic focus in 2007 will be shifted from further
expansion to salvaging the constitution.
Germany's assumption of the EU presidency for the first half of
2007 should provide a much-needed opportunity for this new strategy
to take off.
According to the plan of German Chancellor Angela Merkel,
Germany will take the opportunity of holding the six-month EU
presidency to present a political agreement to the European Council
which will spell out which clauses in the current EU Constitution
should be revised. This will provide the basis for settling the
constitutional issue in the second half of 2008, when the EU
presidency goes to France.
The outcome of the French elections this April will have a
crucial influence on the implementation of the new EU strategy. One
of the presidential candidates Union for a Popular Movement leader
and Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy has already said he would
support an EU "mini-constitution" that only requires the approval
of member countries' legislatures.
By circumventing popular votes for its legitimacy, a
mini-constitution would enjoy the obvious advantage of smooth
passage. But if it should differ too greatly from the existing
constitution, EU countries may not be ready for this streamlining
change.
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It is generally agreed that, no matter how different the new
constitution is from the existing version, the following articles
must be included: a deciding vote by simple majority, specifying
more clearly the responsibilities of member states and the European
Union, establishing the post of an EU foreign minister, and
extending the term of the European Council chairman from 30 months
to five years.
Though there are quite a few variables in predicting the outcome
of the French general elections, they will no doubt offer an
opportunity for France to rethink, remake and reapply the strategy
for a new EU Constitution.
Meanwhile, pollsters are finding a positive change in European
sentiment toward a new EU constitution. A recent poll conducted by
European Barometer showed popular support for a new EU constitution
outweighing opposition in France, the Netherlands and even
Britain.
Germany's assumption of the EU presidency and the French general
elections will also significantly influence EU foreign relations in
2007. At the same time, the development of EU-US, EU-Russia and
EU-China ties are particularly worth watching.
In reaction to the US call to war in Iraq, a so-called realistic
diplomacy demanding improvement in EU-US relations and
strengthening cross-Atlantic cooperation has become dominant in
Europe.
Many strategic decision- makers in Europe believe the continent
can exert effective influence over the world only by joining the US
in playing a positive role rather than countering it. In essence,
Europe seems increasingly sure of its own role: to be America's
valuable ally and friendly counterbalance.
Recently, many European leaders, including German Chancellor
Merkel, have again raised their voices in calling for better EU
economic cooperation with the US to improve competitiveness in the
global economy. Merkel reasoned that both sides must unite to face
growing challenges from Asian and Latin American nations if they
want to defend their own interests.
The concept of a unified Europe-North America investment market
proposed by Merkel is attracting interest.
It differs from the "cross-Atlantic free trade zone" proposal
that died prematurely in the mid-1990s. The focus is on
establishing a set of common legal and technological standards
rather than on free trade. It is aimed at expanding Europe-US trade
and reducing the costs incurred by differences in standards and
statutes. The goal is expanding trade and investment between Europe
and the US.
Given the decisive role played by the EU and the US in the
global economy, a unified standard will surely give European and US
enterprises a bigger competitive edge against the rest of the
world.
At the same time, improving relations with Russia is one of the
most important and most challenging tasks facing the EU this year.
The union has many reasons to maintain good ties with Russia, but
their relationship has frequently been troubled in recent years.
Although the EU-Russia relationship fared slightly better than
US-Russia ties last year, it can only be described as cooling.
Russia supplies 40 percent of the natural gas, 32 percent of the
petroleum and 17 percent of the coal that EU imports each year.
After their row last year, the EU is increasingly worried about its
dependence on Russian energy resources, fearing Moscow might one
day use it as a political weapon against the alliance.
This is sufficient evidence of the deep mutual distrust between
the EU and Russia. Political arm-wrestling between the two sides is
expected to continue, primarily over energy issues in 2007.
Jumpy relations between Russia and some new EU members, such as
Poland and the three Baltic nations of Latvia, Lithuania and
Estonia, have added to tension in EU-Russia ties. For example, last
November a "no" vote by Poland crushed the proposed new EU-Russia
cooperation agreement. The move was in retaliation against Russia's
ban on meat imports from Poland.
In the realm of EU-China relations, the most important work to
be done in 2007 is negotiating a new bilateral partnership and
cooperation agreement. It will cover widespread issues including
political and economic relations.
Part of the mix, as French President Jacques Chirac's and
British Prime Minister Blair's terms in office end this year, China
is faced with adjusting to the significant leadership changes.
In general, EU's China policy will remain focused on bilateral
cooperation. Two important decisions made in 2006 emphasized the
significance of maintaining the strategic partnership. One is the
sixth China policy document published by the European Commission on
October 24. The other is the resolution on EU's China policy passed
by EU foreign ministers on December 11.
It must be noted, however, that China's growing economic
competitiveness has been a topic of intense debate among EU
members. Pressured by southern European countries, which view
themselves most affected by Chinese exports, EU's China-related
economic and trade policies have hardened noticeably.
The European Commission is expected to increase pressure on
China over such key areas as full access to China's service market
and protection of intellectual property rights, while continuing to
restrict the imports of certain Chinese products by means of
anti-dumping measures.
No matter what breakthroughs are made in a new EU constitution,
how to handle the China-EU trade rows properly to avoid a flare-up
of economic clashes is a critical task facing both China and the
EU.
Feng Zhongping is director of Institute of European Studies
in the China Institutes of Contemporary International
Relations.
(China Daily February 9, 2007)
