The new year of 2007 marked Bulgaria and Romania's official
accession to the Europe Union (EU) but a celebration of night-long
fireworks may still fail to ignite the hopes that Germany can, in
its six months of EU rotating presidency which begins from the new
year, salvage the bloc from a crisis of confidence.
Slim hope for agreement on constitution
The union's crisis was triggered in 2005 when France and the
Netherlands, both founding fathers of the bloc, in their referendum
rejected the bloc's constitution treaty mainly designed to
streamline the union's institutions and create the post of foreign
minister who could speak for the EU.
Their rejections have left the bloc somehow rudderless
especially over policies concerning energy security and relations
with Russia.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel earlier vowed to revive the
constitution or at least lay a ground during her time at the
helm.
Under her plan, a political deal has to be worked out over how
the original text should be changed, while a full new text is
expected to be ready by the end of this year and be ratified during
the first half of 2009.
But the timetable will be subject to all sorts of uncertainties,
and the French general elections in May could be the most
significant one.
French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, one of the key
candidates, has already pledged to campaign for a stripped-down
version of the constitution.
Reports said that he, if elected, could push the National
Assembly to ratify the version instead of putting it to a second
referendum.
Things would be more complicated if Socialist candidate Segolene
Royal wins as her party itself is split over the constitution.
Even though a new constitution is widely considered necessary
for the union's further expansion, chances for the European leaders
to reach an agreement in a short time seem slim, said analysts
here.
Hardly-bridged energy policy gap
The energy shortage has long been regarded as a threat to the
EU's security, and Merkel has vowed to tackle it.
Russian energy giant Gazprom sparked grave concerns among EU
members when it abruptly cut off gas supplies to Ukraine due to
price disputes a year ago.
In order to shield the EU from possible energy disasters in the
future, Merkel plans to present an Energy Action Plan at the EU's
summit slated for early March.
However, the making of a common energy policy within the bloc is
by no means an easy task. For instance, Britain and Sweden have
been pressing for a Europe-wide deregulation of energy monopolies
and the establishment of common electricity or gas grids within the
union, while Germany and France have rejected the proposals.
Moreover, Poland and the Baltic states strongly oppose the deal
done by Russian President Vladimir Putin and former German
Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in 2005 on building a new North
European gas pipeline that would directly supply customers in
Western Europe, bypassing Poland, the Baltic states and
Ukraine.
Difficult expansion
Bulgaria and Romania joined the EU on Jan. 1. However, their
entry process was marred by foot-dragging due to their insufficient
efforts, as the EU criticized, in fighting crimes and preparing to
tap EU funds, causing some EU states to hesitate at the prospect of
the bloc's further expansion and integration.
Turkey's membership talk with the bloc has been partially
suspended as Turkey refused to open its ports with Cyprus, an EU
member.
Although a couple of negotiating chapters for Turkey might be
re-opened next year, Turkey has to solve its conflicts with Cyprus
beforehand, said German diplomats.
Merkel insisted that negotiations with candidate countries do
not automatically lead to a full membership, noting the latter will
no longer be given target dates for their entry as were Bulgaria
and Romania.
Also the EU leaders declared at their last summit in December
last year that the existing membership criteria would be toughened
and the EU applicants would be scrutinized more carefully.
Such potential candidates as Serbia have been told they can join
the EU one day only if they meet the criteria in such fields as
democracy, the rule of law and a market economy in accordance to
the bloc's goals of political and economic union.
Diplomatic challenges ahead
The EU has always been seeking a bigger role on the
international arena over the world's most burning issues, among
which the peace talks between Israel and Palestine would stand as a
priority.
Merkel has vowed to revive the Roadmap plan for the peace
between the two rival sides in the first half of 2007.
Kosovo could once again turn into a possible hot spot in 2007,
German diplomats warned. Reports said that the Muslim Albanian
majority there may make a unilateral declaration on independence
from Serbia in case that negotiations fail.
Violence in Iraq, the nuclear standoff with Iran and the
situation in Afghanistan could spin out of control under Germany's
watch, diplomats said. Meanwhile, seeking better ties with Russia
should also be a diplomatic priority of the EU largely due to
energy concerns.
The EU countries had expected to expand cooperation with Russia
through a new EU-Russia partnership. However, the deal was rejected
by Poland at a Russia-EU summit held in Helsinki in November last
year.
Merkel also planned to expand cooperation with countries like
Ukraine and Georgia, which she described as Europe's "new
neighborhood."
She also initiated to stabilize Central Asia - the large,
energy-rich nations like Kazakhstan.
To achieve all these goals, Merkel has to convince those main EU
players to bridge their long-standing policy gaps, but Europe may
still fall short of a credible diplomatic force in the world if it
fails to speak with just one voice, analysts said.
(Xinhua News Agency January 4, 2007)
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