As the European Union (EU) completes its fifth round of
enlargement by taking in Romania and Bulgaria on Jan. 1, 2007, the
relative calm with which the bloc welcomes the new members is
notable.
EU officials hailed it a "historic day to celebrate" as the bloc
grows to 27 nations with population of 493 million.
But the subdued atmosphere is in stark contrast with 2004, when
10 central and eastern European countries joined the then 15-nation
bloc with much fanfare and enormous expectations from both old and
new members.
As enthusiasm among EU citizens toward continuous expansion ebbs
and institutional reform crucial to the future enlargement of the
giant organization is put on hold by French and Dutch vetoes, the
two newcomers are widely seen as having caught "the last train"
before the EU shuts its door to future aspirants, at least for a
while.
Newcomers
Romania and Bulgaria will be the poorest countries in the EU,
with their per capita income only equaling a third of the average
in the current 25 members, and their combined GDP representing less
than 1 percent of the new 27-nation body.
The advantages of being in the club are obvious: up to €35
billion? (US$45.5 billion) of EU funds could flow to the two
countries by 2013, shoring up their economy and generating
jobs.
Romania will receive almost €10.5 billion (US$13.65 billion) in
the next three years, mainly for structural operations, rural
development, agriculture market measures and direct payments to
farmers. This equates to €480 (US$624) for every Romanian.
The benefits are mutual. Bulgaria and Romania, with their
economy growing at five to six percent in 2006, more than double
the EU-25 average growth rate, offer ample investment opportunities
for other EU members,
Several sectors in the two countries -- computers and data
processing, tourism, the automobile industry and retail -- have
been increasingly attractive to foreign investors in recent
years.
However, the entry into the EU, after decade-long membership
talks and painful domestic reforms to integrated with the EU
systems, has been far less sweet than anticipated due to older
members' reluctance to admit them and the numerous conditions
attached to their new identity.
Secondary members?
The two Balkan countries, seen by the EU as still lagging on
standards in quite a few areas, will be put under continued
tutelage from Brussels in areas from justice and home affairs to
agriculture and food safety.
As if accession never really happened, Sofia and Bucharest will
abide by roughly the same monitoring procedures as past years, such
as submitting regular progress reports and receiving "peer review"
visits by EU officials.
Both states have to meet certain "benchmarks" -- particularly in
judicial reforms and the fight against corruption -- to avoid the
triggering of safeguard clauses and possibly the non-recognition of
Romanian or Bulgarian court verdicts in the EU.
The EU will also carefully watch how the two countries spend the
development aid they will receive. Serious shortcomings may lead to
the suspension of EU funds.
Should they fail to fulfill obligations, the safeguard measures
may limit the application of the internal market in some sectors of
the two countries.
The conditions imposed on the two newcomers is notably stricter
than that faced by the 10 entrants in the last wave of enlargement,
which only saw some export restrictions on agricultural products
similar to those faced by Romania and Bulgaria.
Staying sober
Despite some planned festivities to celebrate their entry into
the EU in the capitals, Romanians and Bulgarians remained
relatively cool to their newly acquired identity.
A recent EU poll found that 65 percent of the Romanians have a
"very positive or fairly positive image" of membership, down from
76 percent in 2004.
In a recent interview with French daily Le Monde,
Romanian President Traian Basescu said the Romanians are fully
aware of potential difficulties in the first few years after the
accession, when his country's economy and society will face
competition from the other member states.
A lot of work needs to be done. The first is to make the public
understand what it means to be inside the EU.
Romania has started a national publicity campaign, with
officials emphasizing that Romanians can expect more investment,
better law enforcement and stronger economic growth, echoing what
happened in the other former Soviet bloc countries that joined the
EU in 2004.
To counter the wrong conceptions about the consequences of EU
membership, the Romanian government listed 22 common myths on its
website. These range from the belief that rich foreigners will buy
Romanian property on a large scale after enlargement, to the fear
that Romanians will no longer be allowed to slaughter pigs or
produce home-made brandy.
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"I got alarmed when an old woman asked me whether it's true she
would no longer be allowed to use the parsley she's been growing in
her yard in her soup," said Anca Boagiu, the Romanian minister in
charge of EU integration, Bloomberg reported.
The truth still hasn't reached many Romanians, particularly
the40 percent who live in rural areas, the minister said.
Enlargement fatigue
As the EU prepares to celebrate its 50th anniversary in 2007,
its enlargement looks set to pause for a while as EU citizens feel
threatened by expansion and politicians are increasingly skeptical
about the bloc's capacity to absorb new members.
Compared with two and a half years ago, EU nationals are now
much less convinced about the merits of admitting new member
countries. Turkey's application has met tremendous opposition,
particularly in France, Germany and Austria.
The latest Euro barometer opinion poll shows that while 72
percent of the population in the 10 countries that joined the EU in
2004 favor further expansion, only an average 41 percent in the
other 15 hold the same opinion.
At their December summit, EU leaders reached consensus on
enlargement which was based on 3Cs -- consolidation, conditionality
and communication.
While reiterating that the EU's door is not closed, they
underscored the importance of acceding countries meeting strict
conditions, and the need to convince the EU citizens of the
benefits of enlargement.
There are no provisions for further enlargement in the current
EU treaties.
Croatia, which has the best chance of the current candidates to
join the club, will have to wait until 2009 or 2010 before joining
the EU. The time of admission for other Balkan countries are much
less certain.
Turkey, the Eurasian country with 72 million of mostly Muslim
population, has no prospective entry date, despite talks having
been officially opened on its candidacy.
(Xinhua News Agency December 30, 2006)
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