Protests in Iran unlikely to bring about regime change

Xinhua, February 17, 2011

Dissimilar protests

Ze'ev Maghen from the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University, said he believed that the numerous demonstrations across the Middle East have had an effect on reviving the Green Movement in Iran, which had been silent since the post-election demonstrations.

"In Iran, everyone is claiming the events in Tunisia and Egypt as their own," Maghen said. He said that both the government and the demonstrations have used the developments as an argument to prove their points.

The regime arguing that the demonstrations were inspired by the Islamic Revolution in 1979 while the pro-democracy movement, on the other hand, said that the revolts were sparked by a desire for freedom, he said.

While acknowledging Bar's view that the different responses of the armed forces played a role in how the protests developed, Maghen said that if Iranian protests developed to the extent it did in Egypt, most of the armies will eventually back down.

Maghen said there are also differences in how the regimes claim their legitimacy and authority in each country. "Mubarak doesn't have a religious claim, nor a democratic one."

"The Iranian leadership makes both of those claims. So it's much harder to rise up against them," Maghen added.