Protests in Iran unlikely to bring about regime change

Xinhua, February 17, 2011

After almost one year and a half in hiatus, Iranian opposition forces took to streets again in the garb of the Iranian Green Movement which is named after the color its members wore when they protested against the re-election of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009.

Analysts said it is a further step in a wave of protests that broke out in many countries in the Middle East since the overthrow of Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and the downfall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

However, analysts said that despite the similarities of the protests in Iran, Egypt and Tunisia, there are huge differences when looking a bit closer.

American influence

Shmuel Bar from the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya said there are several important differences between Iran and Egypt, ranging from the type of regime to the degree of American influence.

First of all, the Egyptian military wasn't willing to use force against the demonstrations. Additionally, Egypt is an regional ally of the U.S., which has influence over the regime. Thus the military had to take into account that if it acts brutally, it's going to lose the U.S. support.

The Americans had the leverage to impose great pressure on Mubarak, since he was their ally, Bar said.

However, "the situation is absolutely different in Iran where the military is willing to use force, and it deter the protesters, which the Egyptian regime didn't have," Bar said.

The Iranian demonstrators knew that they did not have the American support, and even if they had, the Americans have no leverage over the regime.

And for the Iranian demonstrators, the issues are far more complex than just getting rid of Ahmadinejad, according to Bar.

"Even now, the Americans are only expressing very light criticism towards the regime, while at the same point in Egypt, the American were calling on Mubarak to step down," Bar said.