Role of consumption limited

By Zhang Monan
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China Daily, May 29, 2012
Adjust font size:

Zhang Monan is an associate researcher with the State Information Center

The decrease in developed economies' demand has taken its toll on China. The recent inspection visits across the country by top national leaders signify decision-makers' concerns about economic growth, as well as their resolve to take this opportunity to transform China's economic structure.

There can be no retreat from the transformation. China's economy is confronted by various challenges, such as slowing growth, rising costs and increasing uncertainties at home and abroad. But can the economy rely on consumption to regain its rapid rate of growth? The answer is no.

Past experience indicates the world economic development model, which depends on one single country as the main source of demand, is no longer sustainable, because it necessarily increases the volatility and vulnerability of the world economy, unbalancing the demand structure and growth structure of the global economy.

Investment remains the main driving force for economic development in China, which is still far from the stage where domestic consumption can be the main driver of growth. According to the World Bank, the average annual economic growth in China for the past 30 years has been 9.8 percent, among which 2 to 4 percentage points have been from total factor productivity while the remainder was almost all contributed by investment.

The annual growth of the Chinese economy from 1995 to 2010 was 9.92 percent on average. During this period, the investment in fixed assets in China increased by 20 percent a year on average, and the investment in fixed assets accounted for 41.63 percent of GDP. And investment is still the main driver for China's economic growth now external demand is shrinking.

The high investment growth rate is related to the long-term low utilization of capital, which requires more investment for each unit of output. The incremental capital-output ratio is the index evaluating the marginal efficiency of capital. When it increases, it means more capital is needed to produce the same output increment as before. Over the last five years the incremental capital-output ratio has increased year by year. If the efficiency of investment cannot be improved, only by injecting more money can China sustain its high-speed economic growth. But this practice is no longer sustainable.

I don't think consumption can sustain China's economic growth either. Although China is the world's second largest economy, according to the World Bank, the average per capita GDP is only slightly more than $4,000, the level of a middle to high-income developing country. If we blithely overplay the role of consumption, we may miss the opportunity to upgrade the industrial structure and the chance to encourage enterprises to increase their input into research and development.

As China's demographic dividend is dwindling and labor prices are increasing, the comparative advantages of labor-intensive industries are vanishing, resulting in a stagnant national economy.

China should adjust its supply-and-demand structure and factor structure as early as possible. It needs to make internal supply, rather than consumption at home, its main driving force for economic growth.

The question is where the domestic demand will come. We have ignored the supply side for a long time while emphasizing demand. It is time now to consider a new portfolio of labor, capital, technologies and their efficiency as the main stimulus for sustainable economic growth.

If supply can be adjusted it can drive the overall demand as well as promote the structural transformation of the domestic economy. As the world's manufacturing base, China accounts for 6 percent of the total global manufacturing output. But China's input into manufacturing research and development is only 0.3 percent of the world's total. China's ratio of value added, a comprehensive index evaluating the input-and-output efficiency of an economy, is 22.99 percentage points lower than that of the United States, 22.12 lower than Japan and 11.69 lower than Germany.

Upgrading manufacturing industries and developing new advantages are crucial to realizing the structural transformation of China's economy. They are essential if the economy is to change from the current demand-driven growth model to a new sustainable model that is propelled by both demand and supply.

Print E-mail Bookmark and Share

Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)

No comments.

Add your comments...

  • User Name Required
  • Your Comment
  • Racist, abusive and off-topic comments may be removed by the moderator.
Send your storiesGet more from China.org.cnMobileRSSNewsletter
主站蜘蛛池模板: 西西人体高清444rt·wang| 99re最新地址精品视频| 曰本女同互慰高清在线观看| 国内精品久久久久影院一蜜桃 | 国产理论视频在线观看| 91福利视频导航| 日本免费大黄在线观看| 亚洲av熟妇高潮30p| 欧美日韩一区二区三区四区在线观看| 免费一区区三区四区| 黄网站在线观看高清免费| 国产精品对白交换视频| 91精品国产亚洲爽啪在线观看| 天天干天天爱天天操| 一二三四社区在线中文视频| 日韩精品视频免费观看| 亚洲二区在线视频| 欧美日本另类xxx乱大交| 亚洲精品午夜在线观看| 狠狠躁夜夜躁人人爽超碰97香蕉| 内射白浆一区二区在线观看| 美女扒开尿眼让男人桶爽视频 | 香焦视频在线观看黄| 国产妇女馒头高清泬20P多毛| 四虎国产永久免费久久| 天天综合亚洲色在线精品| 裴远之的原型人物是谁| 国产成人精品啪免费视频 | 亚洲人成人网站在线观看| 欧美日韩在线播放| 亚洲精品无码专区在线| 特黄特黄一级高清免费大片| 免费国产午夜高清在线视频| 黄页网址在线观看| 国产激情视频一区二区三区| xxxx中文字幕| 国产精品久免费的黄网站| 4455永久在线观免费看| 女人18特级一级毛片免费视频| 久久久无码人妻精品无码| 日本精品一区二区在线播放|