Iran has emerged with a measure of strength from its standoff
with Britain, deflecting attention from its disputed nuclear
program and proving it can cause trouble in the Middle East when it
chooses, analysts said.
Yet the country's hardline leaders also shied away from all-out
confrontation with the West, backing down once they had flexed
their power, apparently worried they might go too far.
In that way, the standoff proved one thing above all else:
Iran's internal decision-making process remains largely mysterious
to the West.
Split between ultra-hardline and more moderate factions, the
Iranian government moved back and forth on the seizures, sending
mixed messages until suddenly, startlingly, announcing on Wednesday
that it would free the 15 sailors.
Whether that is a sign of internal dissent in Iran or finely
honed, clever brinkmanship, Iran clearly gained some respect from
the dispute, at least enough to make the West cautious that the
Islamic government would be willing to dive into such a tussle
again.
"It allowed the Iranians to demonstrate that they can't be
trifled with. They have a capacity to take action, and that will
undoubtedly make people more careful," said James Dobbins, a former
Bush administration envoy to Afghanistan who now heads military
analysis for the RAND Corp think-tank in the United States.
That could affect the aggressiveness of future British navy
patrols in the Persian Gulf near Iraq. It also could affect any
future actions by US military forces inside Iraq.
(China Daily via agencies April 6, 2007)
