By Wolfgang Ischinger
In 1990, Charles Krauthammer published his famous essay on the
"unipolar moment", about the United States' future power to shape
the world at will. He wrote: "The true geopolitical structure of
the post-Cold-War world ... is a single pole of world power that
consists of the United States at the apex of the industrial
west."
In 2007, most will agree that the unipolar moment, if it ever
existed, has passed. That is only underlined by the failure of the
unipolar experiment also know as the invasion and occupation of
Iraq and the damage it inflicted on Washington's international
legitimacy and credibility.
For traditional European Atlanticists, it does not make for
pleasant viewing to see US leadership damaged and questioned. But
expectations are low today regarding US ability to lead the
international community. In the face of a US credibility crisis,
some look to Europe to take the initiative and fill the vacuum. Can
2007 be a European moment?
Critics will contend that the EU is in no shape to lead, as it
continues to grapple with its constitutional crisis, its inability
to provide clear foreign policy guidance and its lack of military
power. But on three critical global issues nuclear
non-proliferation, Middle East peace, and climate change it is
better placed than anyone else.
Opening nuclear negotiations with Teheran was a European idea in
2004, initially given a lukewarm reception by Washington. More
recently, as the EU3-Britain, France and Germany-approach began to
be seen as the only game in town, Washington has offered more
active support, but so far continuing to stop short of speaking to
Teheran directly on the nuclear issue.
Bringing Russia and China on board was, again, a European
initiative. If a solution emerges, it is likely to be
European-brokered. There is much greater cohesion among Europeans
on Iran than there was on Iraq five years ago: On Iran, the EU will
not be split.
When it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, barely any
progress has been made over the past six years. The adoption of the
road map and the creation of the quartet EU, Russia, the UN, the
United States were born of European ideas.
They were formally endorsed by Washington, but never seriously
pursued and later quasi-abandoned. This year, a major effort by the
current EU presidency has led to the quartet's revival and more
diplomatic activity.
Many in the region doubt, however, whether Washington will have
the determination necessary for a breakthrough in the peace process
without even more active input from Europe. The European
willingness to take more responsibility in the region and to play a
role in ending the Lebanon War in 2006, including the deployment of
military forces to the country, was an eye-opener for many in the
region and beyond.
On climate change, the critical question is who can and will
lead the international debate about a post-Kyoto regime. If a deal
can be hammered out in 2007, and if it has any chance of
endorsement in the United States, China and India, it will most
likely be the result of the EU's ongoing efforts to move ahead with
ambitious goals on carbon dioxide emissions and energy saving.
But would a European moment in 2007 not be interpreted as a
challenge to the global leadership role of the US? Let's not get
carried away. Without active US support, both political and
military, none of these major challenges can be resolved. Europeans
should beware the hubris of challenging the United States.
But the European moment could actually enhance the transatlantic
relationship by offering, at a crucial juncture, elements that the
United States currently lacks: legitimacy and credibility. That is
why our American friends should encourage European initiatives,
embrace a European willingness to lead, and welcome the European
moment.
The author is the German ambassador to Britain.
(China Daily via The Guardian March 22,
2007)
