By Feng Zhaokui
Shinzo Abe was elected the new president of Japan's ruling
Liberal Democratic Party on September 20 and is therefore to become
Japan's new prime minister.
People are concerned about how the incoming prime minister would
address diplomatic relations, especially China-Japan ties, which
are caught in the worst impasse since the rapprochement in
1972.
As a protege, hand-picked and groomed by Junichro Koizumi, Abe
is very likely to inherit Koizumi's neo-conservatism attitude. The
eccentric personal style of the outgoing prime minister is,
however, hard to imitate.
At the same time, the Japanese are expecting a politician whose
behavior is dictated by reason rather than whimsical impulses. The
Japanese public want a leader who demonstrates much more
flexibility in handling diplomatic matters, never abandoning the
nurturing of good relations with their Asian neighbors while
consolidating the nation's relations with the United States.
Judging from Abe's performance as a politician and from his
election pledges, it is predicted that the new prime minister would
adopt a more flexible policy, which is more balanced than his
maverick predecessor's, towards China and the Republic of Korea
(ROK).
Abe could steer clear of sensitive issues such as paying homage
to the Yasukuni Shrine which honors war criminals among Japan's war
dead. But on the other hand, Abe could be more hawkish in defending
the "national interests" as he envisions them and would focus more
on strategic maneuvers to achieve his ends, in contrast with
Koizumi's emphasis on "personal conviction" and reason-proof
obstinacy.
Abe pledged in his election platform to mend the damaged
relations with Japan's neighbors, China and ROK in particular, but
also claimed that such relation-mending efforts were two-way
affairs, saying that Japan's door is wide open for China and
ROK.
He thus threw the ball into the court of China and ROK, as
though the latter should take the initiative to walk into the gate
of Japan, instead of the other way around.
The current unhealthy status of China-Japan relations should be
blamed on Koizumi's headstrong handling of the bilateral ties.
Shinzo Abe must understand that China's door is wide open for
him.
Top politicians should cushion the negative impact of narrow
nationalist feelings on diplomacy as much as possible.
This is especially important for Japanese politicians when
handling relations with Northeast Asian countries, which fell
victim to Japanese aggression in the 19th and 20th centuries and,
moreover, submitted to Japanese colonial rule.
In this context, the narrow-minded nationalism on the part of
Japan could pose a major threat to the regional stability.
Abe trumpets that Japan should join the ranks of the countries,
which set the rules of the game and pushes for diplomacy based on
Japan's own ideas and initiative. If he, however, simply copies
Koizumi's extra pro-US policy, his idea of diplomacy based on
Japan's own initiative would come to no avail.
As carefully selected successor to Koizumi, Abe puts forward the
idea of US-Japanese alliance for the good of the world and Asia,
indicating that he will follow his mentor's pro-US line.
In the tenure of Koizumi as Japanese prime minister, Japan
adopted the diplomatic approach of getting closer to the United
States and estranging from China.
This was meant to maintain certain degrees of tension in its
relations with China and, in turn, make Japanese citizens feel "the
pressure from China," - diverting pressure away from Koizumi's
diplomacy of leaning exclusively towards the United States.
Now that a new prime minister is taking the helm, people have
reason to hope that Abe will not tread on the same old rut.
Ichiro Ozawa, head of the Democratic Party of Japan, puts
forward the idea that Japan should have an alliance with the United
States based on equality.
Furthermore, Ozawa urges the formation of an "equilateral
triangle" between Japan, China and the United States. The idea is
rather diametrically opposed to Koizumi's excessively pro-US
policy.
Abe now faces a political landscape that is different from that
in Koizumi's tenure. A rising and ambitious Democratic Party is
bent on taking over the prime minister's office in 2007. Restrained
by such factors, Abe, therefore, are unlikely to always have his
own way as his willful predecessor did.
Over the issue of revising the constitution, Abe has always
resented the ninth article in Japan's post-war pacifist
constitution, which states that Japan abandons wars.
Abe regards this article of contradicting the rights of an
independent nation. He also resents that Japan is deprived of the
right of belligerence. So the ninth article in the constitution is
a sore point in the eyes of Abe, and must be removed. He vows to
formulate a new Japanese constitution that fits the 21st century,
urging that the current constitution be re-interpreted. He wants to
formulate the new constitution in five years.
Sixty years have passed since Japan's post-war constitution was
enacted and great changes have thereby taken place both inside
Japan and on the international political and economic terrain.
It is, therefore, reasonable that Japan revises its constitution
and the revision should not be equated to raising the specter of
militarism.
The international community should be alerted to the attempts of
the Japanese right-wingers to overthrow the ninth article, which is
regarded the core of its pacifist constitution.
These extremists want to lead Japan away from the road of
peaceful development, along which the country has been traveling
ever since and end of World War II.
They are doing all this by exploiting Japanese citizens'
justifiable demand for revising the constitution.
Taku Yamazaki, former vice-president of the Liberal Democratic
Party of Japan, worries that Abe, a member of the post-war
generation, is simply unable to understand the horror of war and
how valuable peace is. Abe can be easily deviated from the track of
settling disputes via dialogue or by diplomatic means and is prone
to emphasize strength, in the opinion of Yamazaki.
Abe is likely to boost military expenditure in an around-about
way in his term as prime minister, taking into account of his
outlooks of history and war, according to Yamazaki.
On the matter of the Yasukuni Shrine, Abe has ever backed
Koizumi in his visits to the war shrine and he himself visited
Yasukuni in April this year, though shunning publicity. He has so
far remained ambiguous about whether or not he would visit the war
shrine in the capacity of prime minister. But he cannot remain
evasive forever, now that he is prime minister. He must show where
he stands definitely and unambiguously.
Koizumi's repeated Yasukuni visits have served to erect a
towering barrier to the improvement of the China-Japan relations.
Abe's position on this matter will be a touchstone to test his
sincerity in bettering ties with China and ROK.
The author is a researcher with the Institute of Japanese
Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
(China Daily September 25, 2006)
