By Eric Teo Chu Cheow
Today is a landmark date in Japanese politics, as the ruling
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elects a new leader to succeed Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who is stepping down voluntarily after
what is widely viewed in Asia as a colorful but controversial
five-year premiership. The new LDP leader will automatically become
Japan's new prime minister, as the party holds an uncontestable
majority in the lower house of the legislature.
All prognostics give Shinzo Abe, chief cabinet secretary under
Koizumi (and Koizumi's anointed successor) the victory in a
three-way race.
Abe is without doubt massively supported by LDP stalwarts and
the grassroots for domestic political reasons, although many
critics also fear his hawkish stance on China and the two Koreas,
whose relations with Japan have soured under Koizumi.
Critics of Abe, both within Japan and in the region, view him as
a hawkish nationalist, given his conservative lineage and recent
pronouncements.
Abe's grandfather, Nobosuke Kishi, a minister in
Japanese-controlled Manchukuo who spent three years in prison for
World War II crimes, became a founding member of the LDP and then
prime minister of Japan.
Then there was Abe's grand-uncle, Eisaku Sato. Also a Japanese
prime minister, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for signing
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Abe's own father was a career
LDP politician, who served as foreign minister under then-prime
minister Yasuhiro Nakasone.
All three men have been known to be conservatives, who favored a
strong alliance with the United States to "normalize" Japan; Abe
would most likely prove to be no different.
On the other hand, many have stated that Abe could be a
pragmatist, who would know not to go too far unlike his
predecessor, who challenged Beijing and Seoul by incessantly
visiting the controversial Yasukuni Shrine five times within his
five years in office, despite strong protests from Tokyo's
immediate neighbors.
So far, Abe has abstained from declaring if he would visit the
Shrine, as China and Republic of Korea (ROK) leaders hold their
breaths. Perhaps, Abe's current strategy is not to start his term
in Japan's highest political office with this highly controversial
issue, which clearly plagued Koizumi before him.
In fact, 15 August 2006 will be remembered by many in Asia for
Koizumi's "last defiance," when he visited the controversial Shrine
on the anniversary of Japan's surrender following its defeat in the
Pacific War 61 years ago. No Japanese prime minister had chosen
that day for a shrine visit since Nakasone in 1985.
To recall the emotional strain within Asia, not only did China
and the ROK protest vigorously as expected, but the Singapore
Ministry of Foreign Affairs unprecedentedly issued a statement,
calling the visit both a domestic issue and an international
concern, thus "regrettable" and "not helpful." Indonesian Foreign
Minister Hassan Wirayuda also weighed in to express regret, and a
demonstration was held, mostly by Malaysian Chinese, in Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia.
In a way, this was the first time Southeast Asians came out so
openly to deny Koizumi's oft-repeated assertions that only Chinese
and Koreans opposed his visit, and not Southeast Asians, who had
suffered equally in the Pacific War and endured three and a half
years of Japanese Imperial Army occupation, from Viet Nam through
Malaysia and Singapore all the way down to Indonesia.
Koizumi's August 15 visit also elicited a reaction from
Washington. Though the American statement was "soft" and clearly
tried to balance between Beijing/Seoul and Tokyo, it was
nevertheless the first time the Americans came out with such a
"Yasukuni statement."
One would recall that Koizumi, during his farewell visit to
Washington to call on his "good friend," US President George W.
Bush, was denied an address to a joint session of Congress by Henry
Hyde, chairman of the US Congressional Committee on Foreign
Affairs, who had himself fought in the Pacific War.
Similarly, there have also been some discordant voices heard
recently in Australia against Koizumi's Yasukuni visits, as
Australian veterans involved in the "Death Railway" in Kanchanaburi
in Thailand remembered the Japanese Imperial Army's World War II
atrocities against them in Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia.
There are also growing voices of concern within Japan, like LDP
legislator Kochi Kato (a former LDP secretary-general) as well as
prominent names within journalistic and literary circles, who have
come out openly to condemn Koizumi's Yasukuni visits. Just
recently, 1994 Nobel Prize winner Kenzaburo Oe visited the Nanjing
Massacre Memorial in profound silence and remorse, and also met
with some survivors of the 1937-38 massacre.
Even the latest polls within Japan have indicated that more and
more Japanese are now aware that their country's relations with
China and the ROK have deteriorated thanks to Koizumi's continued
shrine visits in spite of appeals from Tokyo's neighbors, economic
relationships with whom have undoubtedly helped pull Japan up
economically in the last two years.
Abe should heed these public indications within Japan, as well
as the recent "imperial leak" revealing that the late Emperor
Hirohito (who had "launched" the Pacific War in 1941) made a point
not to visit Yasukuni after the 14 Class A war criminals were
enshrined there in 1978.
Abe should also heed Chinese President Hu Jintao's pronouncements on the anniversary
of the liberation of China from Japanese occupation and the most
recent declaration of Premier Wen Jiabao in Helsinki, Finland, urging the new
Japanese prime minister to "remove the impending political
obstacles to Sino-Japanese relations."
With choruses joining those from within Japan, growing protests
from China and the ROK now joined by those from some Southeast
Asian countries, the United States and Australia, this constitutes
a dire warning to the new prime minister of Japan as he ponders the
Yasukuni issue upon assuming the premiership later this month.
There is no doubt that, as Japan strives to become a "normal
country," the Yasukuni issue is fast becoming an "abnormal anomaly"
of Japan's historical legacy with the rest of the Asia-Pacific.
It is therefore without doubt that Yasukuni would be an
extremely dicey test for the new prime minister in regional
relations, as he faces severe tests in domestic politics ranging
from the tough local and upper-house elections in his first 12
months in office and a resurgent opposition to reviving "failed"
economic, social and even, perhaps the controversial constitutional
reforms, left over from the Koizumi days.
Abe should clearly "cool" the regional front and make a real
gesture to Japan's immediate neighbors, in a show of solidarity
with Asia at large.
The author is a council member of the Singapore Institute
for International Affairs.
(China Daily September 20, 2006)
