China's trade surplus may increase US$18 billion from last year to exceed a record US$280 billion this year, the National Development and Reform Commission forecast in a report on Tuesday.

The higher surplus is attributed to a slower comparative growth in imports than exports in recent months, the country's top economic planner said, adding the fall in the trade figures last month signaled huge challenges ahead.

It also said the trade value this year may increase 15 percent to more than US$2.5 trillion.

"The monthly trade surplus figures since August has repeatedly set new records. But the fundamental reason is the sharper growth moderation in imports rather than an acceleration in export growth," said the commission.

Last month, China's exports fell 2.2 percent from a year earlier to US$114.9 billion while imports dropped a startling 17.9 percent on an annual basis to US$74.9 billion.

The sharper decline in imports last month pushed the trade surplus to US$40 billion, a jump of 52.3 percent from a year ago.

In the first 11 months of this year, China's trade surplus has grown to US$255.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.8 percent.

"The trend is that export growth in labor-intensive sectors has slowed while import growth of some production materials also eased due to weaker external demand for manufactured goods," said the report.

Through last month, the exports of garments and accessories posted a yearly increase of 3.1 percent, down 19.1 percentage points from the same period last year.

The commission forecast a further deterioration in the global trade environment next year.

(Shanghai Daily December 17, 2008)