China's trade surplus in the first three quarters shrank 2.6 percent, or 4.92 billion U.S. dollars, to 180.9 billion U.S. dollars from a year earlier, despite a jump in September.
The September surplus rose 22.59 percent year-on-year to 29.3 billion U.S. dollars, the third month of continuous gains.
In August, the surplus was 28.69 billion U.S. dollars. In July, it was 25.28 billion U.S. dollars.
"The surplus jumped mainly because imports posted a much bigger slow down than exports as commodities prices and shipping rates slumped," said Li Jian, a Ministry of Commerce analyst.
September exports jumped 21.5 percent to 136.4 billion U.S. dollars, largely in line with the 21.1 percent growth in August, though lower than 26.9 percent in July, according to the General Administration of Customs.
Imports, however, decelerated, only rising 21.3 percent to 107.1 billion U.S. dollars, compared with 23.1 percent in August and 33.7 percent in July.
Li also attributed the higher monthly surplus to the slower advance in the Chinese currency against the greenback. The yuan had remained almost steady against the U.S. dollar since July.
Exports increased 22.3 percent to 1.07 trillion U.S. dollars during the Jan.-Sept. period. Imports rose 29 percent to 893.1 billion U.S. dollars.
The growth of exports was an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points over the first half of the year, but was 4.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year.
"The export figures do not seem to be very discouraging at the moment," said Zhang Yansheng, director of the International Economic Research Institute under the National Development and Reform Commission. "But the country's exporters are in a very difficult situation right now."
He foresaw a gloomy picture for exporters who were at the same time hit by slackening global demand and rising costs in the country.
Both exports and imports were expected to further decelerate in the fourth quarter, he said. "The surplus may fall as well."
Exports were expected to contribute less to the country's economic growth, he added.
Cai Zhizhou, deputy director of China Center for National Accounting and Economic Growth, Peking University, echoed this view. "The country's future exports are still far from predictable, as U.S. import demands would be much weaker as the sub-prime mortgage crisis worsened."
However, he was more optimistic. "It may not be a bad thing to see exports moderately decelerating as the country is working to achieve a shift from its heavy reliance on exports."
He said there could still be chances for Chinese exporters due to the unfolding financial crisis across the world. "The current crisis could largely increase global demand for Chinese products which are mainly at medium and low end."
Li agreed demand for Chinese products was quite stable.
China's exports to the United States rose 11.2 percent to 189.1 billion U.S. dollars in the first three quarters, an acceleration of 0.6 percentage points from the first eight months.
Exports to Japan increased 16 percent year on year, 2.2 percentage points higher than the Jan.-Aug. period.
Yet, Li also said the extent of the impact of the current financial crisis over the real economy and Chinese exporters remained uncertain.
Zhang said exporters expected the worst would be over in the second half of next year. However, he believed many of them would be driven out of business by then.
(Xinhua News Agency October 13, 2008)
