How the situation will evolve

It has been a month since April 10 when the Philippines stirred up the territorial dispute. Qu Xing, director of the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), said how the Huangyan Island dispute will develop entirely depends on the Philippines.

"If the Philippine side withdraws its vessels from the sea area around Huangyan Island, stops harassing Chinese fishing and government vessels, the situation will improve. If the Philippine side continues its wrong acts, the situation may only escalate to become more complicated and persistent," said Qu.

Currently, the Philippine side continues to miscalculate the situation and insists on strategic negotiations, making it hard to forecast an optimistic short-term outlook, said Dong Manyuan, the CIIS vice-director.

Dong said, "the Philippine side's miscalculation stems from its wrong perception of the possible strategic effects of the United States' strategy to return to Asia, of how much support it will get from the Mutual Defense Treaty with the U.S., of China's resolve to safeguard its territorial integrity, and whether other southeast Asian countries that claim sovereignty over parts of the South China Sea will act with it."

Analysts say the prospect of the situation is bleak because the Philippines, out of political needs both domestically and internationally, is unlikely to reverse its approach to the incident in the short term.

Dong said China has been improving diplomatic efforts and has maintained its position of seeking diplomatic solutions to the current situation, asking the Philippine side to correct its wrong position, drop unreasonable demands, and return to a right course as soon as possible.

However, the Philippine side will definitely meet serious consequences if it is bent on challenging China's sovereignty bottom line, he said.