Delegates from more than 100 countries and international organizations gathered in Bonn, Germany, on Monday to draft a roadmap for Afghanistan's future.

The international conference signaled a clear message to the external world: the international community will continue providing military and economic aid to Afghanistan after NATO and the United States withdraw their forces from the war-torn country by 2014.

"We will not abandon Afghanistan," German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said.

However, it is a mere promise with no specific measures being hammered out at the conference.

TEN-YEAR TRANSITION

The Bonn conference produced a "ten-year transition" plan for the country, under which it is envisaged Afghanistan will develop a stable society and an independent economy from 2015 to 2024.

During this transition, external supports will still be needed for the country to build its security forces, develop its economy and improve the people's livelihood, so it will never return to its previous volatile security situation.

All participating parties at the Bonn conference promised to continue their aid to Afghanistan, but meanwhile, they urged Kabul to share "common responsibilities" to launch reforms, eradicating corruption and fortifying its legal system.

Earlier, the United States, Britain and other major western powers had expressed their will to establish a long-term relationship with Afghanistan. And the Bonn conference has provided a clearer definition, in both time and content, of the phrase, "long-term relationship."

An optimistic Afghan Foreign Minister Zalmay Rasoul projected that his country would end the transition period as provider rather than a receiver of aid.

The outcome of the one-day meeting appeared a bit dull. The only topic of discussion was the participants' promises to continuously support Afghanistan.

At the media briefing after the conference, Westerwelle and Rasoul announced the success of the meeting with smiles on their faces. But when asked for specific measures from the meeting, Westerwelle argued that, although none were drafted, the promises made would lay the foundation for future conferences on the issue.

CONSIDERATION BEHIND

Observers said that, under the 10-year transition plan, the western powers showed their anxieties about what will happen once they pull their troops out of the country.

The "exit strategy" of the United States and NATO are currently being implemented. The combat forces are scheduled to be totally evacuated by 2014, leaving only military training personnel in the country.

However, the timetable was set up according to the internal political and economic elements of the western powers, not the real security situation in Afghanistan.

German media revealed U.S. and German officials privately believe that, once their forces leave, Afghanistan will descend into civil war.

From the military and economic perspectives, the transition plan could be seen as a buffer, a kind of emergency measure that makes sure there will not be any setbacks in Afghanistan's security situation.

Moreover, the plan shows clearly the support is long-lasting, not ever-lasting. The 10-year time limit, on one hand, could ease political and economic pressures inside the concerned parties, and on the other, pressure Afghanistan to carry out the necessary reforms.

At the Bonn conference, all the western powers stressed Afghanistan should take responsibility for its future and make "reforms for aid."

However, some officials pointed out that, during the transition phase, the annual financing gap in the country could reach 7 to 10 billion U.S. dollars. For those western countries battling economic recession triggered by the global financial crisis, it remains a question of whether they will be willing to fund that gap.

GLOOMY PROSPECTS

Countries at the conference agreed the settlement of the Afghanistan problem needed the participation of the neighboring countries.

However, there were clues to how the situation in the region is growing more complex.

Pakistan boycotted the conference in protest over attacks by NATO jets and helicopters on two Pakistani border posts near the Afghan border on Nov. 26.

As one of Afghanistan's neighbors, Pakistan plays an important role in the issue of the Taliban, which has waged a brutal insurgency since it was ousted by NATO-backed forces in 2001. Many Western countries believe the Pakistan government has influence with the Taliban, and has turned a blind eye to its use of Pakistani territory as a base.

Rasoul said security and stability in Afghanistan was in Pakistan's interest, and its absence from the conference did not mean it would never take a seat at the table to discuss the problem.

His view was echoed by Westerwelle, who said he believed Pakistan would comply with the resolution reached at the Bonn conference.

But these are perhaps some one-sided wishes. Analysts point out Pakistan is adjusting its Afghan policy as foreign troops retreat from the country, which could be the root cause of its absence at this meeting.

Iran, another neighbor of Afghanistan, has its own agenda.

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi clearly expressed at the meeting his opposition to the presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan after 2014, or any foreign military base in Afghanistan, which he said went against Afghanistan's security and stability.

He said that, in the past 10 years, foreign troops had not eliminated terrorism in Afghanistan, but only made the situation in the country more volatile.