Vote unlikely to affect Sino-U.S. ties

 
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Analysts said Capitol Hill is unlikely to make major adjustments with respect to Sino-US relations.

 U.S. mid-term elections

"A Republican-controlled congress will permit Republican committee chairmen to call hearings and subpoena witnesses from the Obama administration - often with less than friendly ambitions for the hearings," said Douglas Paal, vice-president for studies and a senior associate at the Asia Program for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

The House Ways and Means Committee, which has held four hearings on the currency issues recently and has been pressing the administration to take a tougher position, Paal told China Daily, is thus likely to be friendlier toward free trade agreements than the Democratic leadership.

Though Republicans cannot directly affect White House's China policy, their influence will still be "indirect but significant", Paal said.

Derek Scissors, a trade expert from the Heritage Foundation, a conservative Washington think tank said if the Republicans gain more power in the two chambers, there will be less emphasis on currency while other issues - such as the protection of State-owned enterprises - will be magnified.

Tao Wenzhao, a scholar on US studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China and the US are likely to reach some consensus on currency issues after the Group of 20 Summit.

In this respect, he added, the role of the Congress will remain limited.

The potential Republican dominance will further complicate the Taiwan question, as "historically the GOP is always pro-Taiwan", he said.

Other experts, such as Orville Schell, the Arthur Ross Director of the Center on US-China Relations at the Asia Society, meanwhile, said a Republican majority in the two chambers may be a cause for concern, given the degree of uncertainty that currently prevails in US politics.

However, analysts do not think the election will seriously affect China-US relations.

Elizabeth Economy, a CV Starr senior fellow and director for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said there are very few opportunities for Congress to play a significant role in Sino-US affairs, and that despite "the noise surrounding China's currency and trade policies", she doubts any drastic measures taken by the new Congress.

Since the Senate exerts a bigger influence than the House on diplomatic affairs, "there is high likelihood that foreign policy will still be within the firm grasp of Obama - whatever the result is", said Shi Yinhong, a senior scholar on US studies at the Beijing-based Renmin University of China.

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