Lebanese thinking

Ever since Israel and Hezbollah fought a bloody summer campaign in 2006, the war drums have been beating, usually in the background but occasionally, as on Tuesday, to the fore.

Some, such as Ziad Abdelnour, the president of the anti- Hezbollah United States Committee for a Free Lebanon, believe it is only a matter of time before fighting breaks out once again. Now though, he fears that while Hezbollah will be the first to participate in any fighting, the rest of Lebanon is likely to follow suit.

"The Lebanese army will get involved sooner than later for the simple reason that the Lebanese president and prime minister are just puppets and cronies in Syria and Hezbollah's hands," said Abdelnour.

Critics of Lebanon argue that despite quitting the country after a three-decade occupation, Syria is once again becoming highly influential. This week, both before and after the incident, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad warned that war is not far off and that Damascus will do whatever necessary to defend Lebanon from "Israeli aggression."

Abdelnour believes Assad means what he says but is in no position to make such remarks.

"Of course he means it though it is all a mirage. Syria will be dismantled if it gets involved. There's a lot of saber rattling going on on Syria's part though they are not capable of anything," he said.

In various interviews over the last 24 hours, Israeli analysts said they do not believe that Hezbollah really wants a new war in the short term, nor that it is in the organization's best interests at the moment.

Israeli thinking

In looking at Israel's own considerations, most Israeli analysts say the Jewish state does not want to get involved in another bloody, expensive operation. However, they add that any decision to attack will be based on what happens in Lebanon rather than on Israel Defense Forces headquarters in Tel Aviv.

Former hawkish Israeli politician and military leader Effie Eitam refused to comment on whether he thinks there will be further violence in the wake of Tuesday's incident, but he said he is extremely concerned by the fact that Hezbollah members are increasingly active within the official Lebanese army.

"The integration of a terrorist organization into the Lebanese army is a step backwards in terms of the country's future," Eitam told Israel Radio on Wednesday.

Karmon points to Nasrallah's TV speech to show in which direction the winds are headed. While not saying a war is imminent, Karmon says Hezbollah's political and military integration in and takeover of Lebanon are pointing down a certain track.

"The attempt to present Hezbollah more and more as a Lebanese legitimate force, so when the moment will be ripe for a full attack on Israel as a step in Iran's strategy to hinder the sanctions or prevent a military attack on its facilities, the Hezbollah provocation would be considered a legitimate national move," said Karmon.