Follow the paper trail

There is a popular Afghan phase: "You can't buy an Afghan but he can be rented." Nevertheless the international community appears willing to spend millions trying to buy Afghan compliance.

Part of the reintegration plan announced by Afghan President Hamid Karzai in London aims to demobilize Taliban foot soldiers who have no link to al-Qaeda by offering economic incentives. Some 70 nations informally agreed to deposit 300 million to 500 million U.S. dollars into a kind of "trust fund."

Such a strategy is nothing new. Korski, who preferred not to call it a buyout, said money has always been an important part of undermining the enemy.

"We've never spent so much money," said Korski. "But this is not a radically new idea."

The United States has always tried to spend its way into a solution, a tactic that could backfire with the more extreme element of the Taliban, whose response could echo a mantra of "We shall not be bought."

However, there is a general consensus that the international community should reach out to rank-and-file soldiers in the Taliban regime.

Afghan Finance Minister Omar Zakhilwal told Reuters on Friday that his country may need up to 1 billion U.S. dollars to help reintegrate Taliban soldiers into society. Even if the international community lived up to its highest pledge made in London, that still leaves 500 million wanting.

That's not to say the world's powers cannot afford to pay off Taliban soldiers but the prospect conjures images of a bottomless money pit.

The economic component is insufficient, said Felbab-Brown, who warned of a bidding war between the Taliban and the government.

"We should not enter into that type of contractual relationship with the population," she said.

Instead, the international community should assure the moderate Taliban element that Afghanistan's future is better if they accept the state, put down their arms and become a legitimate and productive actor within society, she added.