亚洲精品久久久久久一区二区_99re热久久这里只有精品34_久久免费高清视频_一区二区三区不卡在线视频

 

How Asian economies can avoid asset bubbles

0 CommentsPrint E-mail China Daily, December 24, 2009
Adjust font size:

Just as Asian economies started to recover from the global recession, policymakers and markets began worrying over unwarranted asset price increases. While the worries are global, especially in the case of stock markets, the risks of asset price bubbles seem particularly high in Asia, where abundant liquidity is driving up prices of all sorts of assets from real estate in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) and Singapore to Chinese art.

Where is the liquidity coming from? Capital inflows have received a lot of attention lately. Financial capital is flowing into Asia, attracted by the continent's relatively good economic prospects. More important, for most economies, is a dramatic easing of domestic monetary conditions since late last year that has fueled domestic liquidity.

In part, the easing of monetary conditions in Asia was deliberate, a policy response to sharp weaker growth. But some of the easing of monetary conditions was not deliberate. Economies with an exchange rate somewhat or completely fixed to the US dollar and fairly open capital markets are "importing" the loose US monetary policy. In some economies, those imported monetary conditions sit oddly with domestic economic conditions. In many Asian economies, spare capacity is much smaller than in the US and cyclical unemployment much lower.

Against this backdrop, prominent policymakers in Asia have warned of the threats posed to financial stability by the US monetary policy. I would not put it that way. The US monetary policy stance seems about right, given the depressed state of the US economy, with unemployment at around 10 percent. Moreover, there is no credit growth in the US at the moment. The main problem for Asia is the importation of US monetary conditions under fixed or managed exchange rate regimes to economies in very different economic circumstances. But the worries expressed by these policymakers underscore the tensions that this state of affairs generates at the moment.

What should governments do to mitigate these risks? Governments in several Asian economies have tightened prudential regulation and used other administrative measures. They have increased loan-loss coverage ratios and minimum down payments for mortgages and restricted lending to property developers. The Chinese mainland has taken steps to try to avoid new lending going to the stock market and to increase the supply of stocks by allowing IPOs again. Taiwan has banned foreign investors from putting money into the island's fixed-term deposits. But, except for Australia, other economies in the region have so far refrained from tightening their overall monetary policy.

Looking ahead, more prudential and other administrative measures can be taken, such as increasing loan-loss and minimum down payment ratios and higher reserve requirements. Administrative measures may not be enough, though. Adjustments to monetary and exchange rate policy may be needed. To decide what to do in this area, in my view policymakers should first determine what the main problem is: capital inflows or (too) rapid domestic liquidity creation. And, if too rapid domestic liquidity creation is the main problem, to what extent is this because of loose monetary conditions imported via the exchange rate regime?

If capital inflows are a big problem, compared to domestic liquidity creation, economies cannot rely too much on higher interest rates to dampen financial risks, because the increase in capital inflows owing to higher interest rates may outweigh the impact on domestic liquidity. This may especially be the case in some of the smaller, financially more open economies in Asia. If the openness of their capital market creates such big constraints, they should consider measures to control or discourage capital inflows. They can also absorb some of the pressure by allowing their currencies to strengthen. East Asian economies tend to worry about loosing their competitiveness if they let their currencies strengthen unilaterally. With so many economies facing the same problem, it would make sense to strive for more cooperation on exchange rate management, formally and informally.

If capital inflows are not a major problem but the cyclical differences vis-a-vis the US mean that loose monetary policy is very inappropriate for domestic economic conditions, there may be room to tighten monetary policy, including raising interest rate.

In my view, this is the situation on the mainland, where the role of capital inflows compared to domestic liquidity creation is smaller than many think. Policymakers have at times been unnecessarily reluctant to raise interest rates. In the first half of 2009, net financial capital inflows were equivalent to only 3.3 percent of domestic credit creation. Given the mainland's capital controls and the relatively small role of capital inflows, the pros of higher interest rates seem to outweigh the cons. This may be the case in other Asian economies as well, particularly if such moves are accompanied by tightening capital controls further.

Some are reluctant to tighten the monetary policy because of low inflation, the traditional trigger for monetary policy action. But the global financial crisis has shown the dangers of neglecting asset price increases in monetary and financial policymaking. In key high-income economies traditionally geared only toward inflation, the monetary policy was loose for too long, even as asset prices rose to levels deemed worrisome by many. In all cases, introducing more exchange rate flexibility would help discourage inflows. By introducing a useful two-way risk on the foreign exchange market, a more flexible exchange rate gives monetary policy more independence to be in line with domestic needs.

In addition, opportunistic timing of structural reforms can reduce risks on asset prices and quality. The supply of financial titles can be increased, by deepening the financial sector, including in the bond and equity markets. In places where interest rates on bank deposits are still capped, easing the caps and stimulating the development of more long term saving instruments would help absorb financial surpluses. Finally, opportunistically introducing or increasing capital gains taxes on equity and real estate would reduce pressures as well.

As Asian growth prospects are likely to continue to differ significantly from those in the US in the coming years, this may well be a good time to take the steps needed to make monetary policy more independent, so that the monetary stance can be more in line with domestic economic conditions.

Print E-mail Bookmark and Share

Comments

No comments.

Add your comments...

  • User Name Required
  • Your Comment
  • Comments are moderated and generally will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive.
Send your storiesGet more from China.org.cnMobileRSSNewsletter
亚洲精品久久久久久一区二区_99re热久久这里只有精品34_久久免费高清视频_一区二区三区不卡在线视频
欧美午夜一区二区| 在线观看日韩av电影| 久久久久网址| 午夜久久久久久| 中日韩美女免费视频网址在线观看 | 亚洲欧美日韩区| 一本色道久久综合亚洲精品按摩| 亚洲人永久免费| 亚洲激情视频网| 亚洲国产色一区| 亚洲国产91| 亚洲精品久久久久久久久久久久久 | 国产精品国产三级国产aⅴ无密码| 欧美日韩亚洲视频| 欧美日韩精品三区| 欧美精品激情| 欧美日韩视频第一区| 欧美日韩亚洲一区二区| 欧美日韩一区三区四区| 国产精品高精视频免费| 国产精品国产三级国产普通话三级 | 久久福利视频导航| 欧美在线视频在线播放完整版免费观看| 亚洲欧美日韩精品久久久| 亚洲免费综合| 久久成人国产| 亚洲精品久久久久久一区二区| 日韩小视频在线观看专区| 一本久道久久综合狠狠爱| 亚洲天堂免费观看| 午夜电影亚洲| 久久国产精品久久久久久| 久久综合色播五月| 欧美激情自拍| 国产精品av久久久久久麻豆网 | 国产日韩欧美中文在线播放| 国产一区二区三区在线观看免费视频 | 一区二区三区无毛| 最新国产成人在线观看| 国产欧美日韩精品a在线观看| 亚洲伊人网站| 亚洲欧美高清| 久久激情视频免费观看| 亚洲国产一区二区三区a毛片| 最新精品在线| 亚洲午夜av电影| 久久国产欧美精品| 蜜桃伊人久久| 欧美新色视频| 精品99视频| 日韩亚洲欧美中文三级| 午夜免费日韩视频| 亚洲美女诱惑| 久久gogo国模啪啪人体图| 欧美成人午夜免费视在线看片| 欧美午夜剧场| 激情综合激情| 亚洲深夜福利在线| 亚洲大胆人体视频| 这里只有精品丝袜| 久久久99爱| 欧美日韩裸体免费视频| 国产日韩久久| 亚洲人妖在线| 久久国产精品高清| 亚洲午夜小视频| 裸体女人亚洲精品一区| 欧美视频中文字幕| 精品51国产黑色丝袜高跟鞋| 亚洲深夜影院| 亚洲精品美女久久7777777| 午夜精品一区二区三区电影天堂| 免费在线视频一区| 国产精品亚洲第一区在线暖暖韩国| 亚洲国产精品激情在线观看| 亚洲欧美综合精品久久成人| 亚洲开发第一视频在线播放| 久久久久久久精| 国产精品国产三级欧美二区| 在线欧美视频| 性欧美精品高清| 亚洲中字黄色| 欧美日韩国产另类不卡| 极品少妇一区二区| 午夜伦欧美伦电影理论片| 亚洲一区在线视频| 欧美日本免费| 在线精品国产欧美| 午夜精品婷婷| 午夜精品一区二区三区在线| 欧美日韩在线三级| 亚洲激情一区二区三区| 久久av一区二区| 欧美一区二区三区在线观看| 国产精品99一区二区| 亚洲日本一区二区| 亚洲国产专区| 久久日韩精品| 国产综合色在线视频区| 亚洲欧美视频在线观看| 亚洲欧美成人综合| 欧美日韩国产黄| 亚洲精品国偷自产在线99热| 亚洲人在线视频| 久久综合狠狠综合久久综合88| 国产亚洲va综合人人澡精品| 午夜精品福利在线观看| 欧美一级片一区| 国产精品久久久久久久久久ktv | 欧美精品乱码久久久久久按摩| 在线观看日韩av先锋影音电影院| 久久本道综合色狠狠五月| 久久精品欧洲| 国产一区二区三区四区在线观看 | 亚洲成色999久久网站| 久久精品视频免费观看| 久久精品免费观看| 国产日韩欧美精品| 午夜精品久久久99热福利| 午夜精品久久久久久久99黑人| 国产精品欧美日韩久久| 亚洲一区日韩| 欧美一区日韩一区| 国产亚洲精品久| 久久精品亚洲精品| 免费看av成人| 亚洲国产精品久久久久婷婷老年 | 亚洲第一区色| 亚洲精品一二三| 欧美精品色一区二区三区| 亚洲精品激情| 一本到高清视频免费精品| 欧美日韩亚洲成人| 中文在线不卡视频| 欧美影院在线| 激情成人亚洲| 亚洲日本一区二区三区| 欧美激情va永久在线播放| 亚洲人成欧美中文字幕| 一区二区三区国产盗摄| 国产精品www.| 香蕉国产精品偷在线观看不卡| 久久久青草青青国产亚洲免观| 一区二区三区自拍| 99精品国产在热久久婷婷| 欧美午夜大胆人体| 香蕉久久一区二区不卡无毒影院| 久久久欧美精品sm网站| 1024成人网色www| av成人免费| 国产精品一区一区| 亚洲国产成人不卡| 欧美啪啪一区| 午夜精品视频一区| 欧美成在线视频| 亚洲午夜高清视频| 欧美制服丝袜| 亚洲国产欧美在线| 亚洲在线观看免费| 激情成人亚洲| 亚洲伊人久久综合| 国产中文一区二区| 9l国产精品久久久久麻豆| 国产精品入口66mio| 亚洲国产天堂久久综合网| 欧美色区777第一页| 欧美在线亚洲综合一区| 欧美激情一区二区三区在线| 亚洲一区综合| 欧美不卡视频| 亚洲欧美美女| 欧美激情一区二区三级高清视频| 亚洲欧美经典视频| 欧美电影专区| 午夜精品久久久久99热蜜桃导演| 欧美激情免费在线| 性久久久久久久久| 欧美日韩午夜精品| 久久精品99国产精品日本| 欧美午夜在线一二页| 亚洲福利在线看| 国产精品久久波多野结衣| 亚洲国产精品一区制服丝袜 | 韩国精品在线观看| 亚洲一区激情| 亚洲福利视频免费观看| 欧美一区国产一区| 99热在这里有精品免费| 蜜桃av一区二区三区| 亚洲影院免费| 欧美精品亚洲精品| 久久精品一二三区| 国产精品日韩高清| 亚洲免费观看在线视频| 国产亚洲精品自拍| 亚洲视频一区| 亚洲国产高清视频| 久久久亚洲午夜电影| 亚洲自拍另类| 欧美午夜激情视频|