Trade chiefs of the World Trade Organization (WTO)'s 153 members are due to meet here on Monday to start their review of the global trade body's activities to boost trade amid the economic crisis, but many observers here say progress on the long-stalled Doha Round talks seemed unlikely.

Boost to trade eyed

The three-day gathering was the WTO's first ministerial conference in four years, where more than 2,700 delegates, along with 400 journalists and nearly 500 members of civil society, are expected to have discussions under the main theme "WTO, Multilateral Trading System and Current Global Economic Environment."

It would be "a platform for ministers to review the functioning of this house" and an occasion "to send a number of strong signals to the world with respect to the entire WTO waterfront of issues, from monitoring and surveillance to disputes, accessions, aid for trade, technical assistance and international governance," WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy said earlier this month.

In parallel to the plenary session, where each delegation may give a short statement, there will be two working sessions to provide an interactive forum for discussion under two broad sub-themes, namely review of WTO activities including the Doha work program and the WTO's contribution to recovery, growth and development.

The conference is taking place as world trade is in its worst contraction caused by the financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Global trade will shrink by more than 10 percent in volume this year, according to the WTO.

It was widely expected that the conference would give a boost to world trade and help lift the global economy out of the crisis.

No deal on Doha round

However, the conference would not take any decision on the Doha Round of global trade talks, whose early conclusion could have unlocked huge trading potential.

It "will not be a negotiating session," the WTO chief said, adding that there would be only discussion on the Doha Round and how to best advance it.

"Of course there will be a discussion, but what there will not be is a ministerial decision on options, texts, which are on the table ... It is simply not ripe for this kind of thing," he said.

The Doha Round of global trade talks was launched in 2001 at a previous WTO ministerial conference in Qatar's capital. It has been deadlocked in the past eight years due to differences between developed and developing countries over access to agricultural and non-agricultural markets.

Political leaders now aim to finish the round by 2010, although previous deadlines have been repeatedly missed.

The World Bank said in a recent research paper that countries can contribute to a more robust recovery from the global recession by rapidly concluding the Doha Round, which could bring up to 160 billion U.S. dollars in gains.

The previous WTO ministerial conferences, which are the highest-ranking body in the organization, usually focused on negotiations to launch a trade round or to advance a trade round.

The exception this time signaled that a deal on the Doha Round is still out of reach.

Protectionism fear

Amid the economic crisis, there is an increasing fear for the rise of protectionism, which poses a further risk to the recovery.

Indonesian Trade Minister Mari Elka Pangestu, who will be vice chairman of the ministerial conference, said last week that protectionism would be a prominent issue in the talks.

Ministers are expected to repeat their pledge of resisting protectionism, though there are signs that some countries have failed to deliver on their promise.

WTO figures showed that the number of anti-dumping investigations rose by 15 percent to 217 in the 12 months to June this year.

Although a recent WTO report said that governments have managed to avoid serious protectionism, with trade-restrictive measures introduced affecting a maximum of 1 percent of world trade, Lamy warned that rising unemployment, which usually follows an economic crisis, could spark greater protectionist policies around the globe.

Meanwhile, an emerging type of "green" protectionism is likely to divide the developed and developing countries at the conference.

Lamy said ministers would discuss the role of trade in the global fight against climate change as the Copenhagen meeting is just around the corner.

World governments are due to meet next week in the Danish capital on a new deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions, a successor to the Kyoto Protocol which expires in 2012.

Some developed countries, including the United States, warned they would impose carbon duties on goods from countries that would not commit to a binding target of reducing emissions, a move slammed by developing countries as a new form of protectionism.

Ahead of the ministerial conference, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh warned developed countries against pursuing protectionist policies under a green label.

"Climate change is becoming the pretext for pursuing protectionist policies under a green label," he said, adding that "this would be contrary to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) and a violation of the WTO as well."

Indonesian Trade Minister Mari Pangestu said Indonesia would reject discussions on climate change in the WTO conference, while Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said efforts to fight climate change must not lead to new trade and investment barriers.