Israeli-Palestinian talks not to resume shortly despite Quartet call

The Middle East Quartet - the United Nations, the United States, the European Union and Russia - hope to resume direct Israeli-Palestinians negotiations in the near future, according to a statement released on Sunday.

However, analysts told Xinhua that the different demands of Israel and the Palestinians, as well as structural problems within the Quartet itself needed to be solved before talks could resume.

"At the moment it's very questionable as to whether the talks will take place at all," said Dr. Jonathan Spyer of the Inter- Disciplinary Center in Herzliya.

Quartet envoy Tony Blair said following a members meeting in Brussels on Sunday that "we look forward to meeting with the parties shortly. This provides us with the opportunity to explore grounds for revived negotiations to take place."

Spyer argued that "the Quartet was clearly determined to convey some optimism from their meeting, so they said that both sides have agreed in principle. But if you look at the evidence that's not really the case."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called on Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. Abbas, on the other hand, is adamant that Israel halt settlement construction in the West Bank, as well as agree that pre-1967 ceasefire lines would be the guidelines for future borders of a Palestinian state.

Because of these conditions, Spyer said, "it's not even likely that these talks will take place at all, let alone they were to get anywhere if they do take place."

Quartet optimism

The talks would be conducted along the timeline presented by the Quartet last month, according to which a preparatory meeting would be held within one month to decide on an agenda and proceedings for the negotiations.

The Quartet also demanded the parties to commit to a timetable that would include a "comprehensive proposal within three months on territory and security" followed by "substantial progress within six months."

A final agreement would then be reached by no later than the end of 2012.

The Quartet has been trying to revive the peace talks over the last couple of months in order to convince Abbas not to seek a UN full membership.

Although strongly opposed by the U.S. and Israel, Abbas officially handed over the request to UN Secretary General Ban Ki- moon on Sept. 23. The UN Security Council is currently deliberating the request, prior to vote to be held in about three weeks' time.

Spyer said that continued efforts by the Quartet to restart the negotiations, despite Israeli and Palestinian reluctance, could be seen as a sign of increasing desperation.

"There are core differences between the two sides, which both sides are aware of. And for this reason one can have as much diplomatic activity and a flurry of conferences and meetings in Brussels," but still no progress would be made, Spyer said.

Long negotiations

"There is reason for this conflict. It's not based on a misunderstanding. It's based on core differences, and it remains that case today as much as it was 20 years ago," Spyer said.

Peace talks in various formats have been going on since the Madrid process in 1993 that led to the Oslo agreement in 1994. However, Spyer said that the years of negotiations haven't led to a closer solution, and both sides have become more committed to their own perspective and less willing to compromise.

One such core issue is what will happen to the Palestinians that left their hometowns when Israel was established in 1948. Spyer argued that on this problem, the "positions are quite irreconcilable."

In addition to the refugees, the status of Jerusalem and the borders of a Palestinian state were all designated as "final- status" questions.

Internal differences

Prof. Samir Awwad of Birzeit University said that the Quartet need to deal with its own internal disagreements.

"It's much easier to deal with the individual parts of the Quartet and not with the Quartet altogether, because they spend a lot of time negotiating the position of the group," Awwad said.

He argued that while the U.S. is the dominant forces of the four members, there are differences between the parties. When it comes to the EU, the European countries are having trouble finding a united position even among themselves, Awwad said.

When the Quartet was established in 2002, one of its main purposes was to widen the number of international actors involved in the peace process and to function as a counterweight to the U.S. alone, which the Palestinians have accused of favoring Israel.

However, Palestinians have recently called for replacement of Blair, after he was perceived as leaning towards Israel.

Awwad went even further, arguing that "there should be a call by other international players to disband the Quartet."