'Emerging markets' have biggest share of auto sales

China Daily, April 25, 2011

"With China at the forefront, emerging markets will continue to be the primary source of growth for the sector going forward," he said.

According to JD Power, sales in China in 2015 are projected to total 29 million units, followed by the US with just 16.5 million units.

The firm estimates that global light vehicle sales will increase from 77 million units this year to 103 million units in 2015, and to 125 million units by 2020, when Brazil, Russia, India, China are together expected to sell 57.7 million light vehicles, accounting for 46 percent of the global total.

Since those countries also have high potential for exports, their combined production should account for an even greater percentage of global output in 2020, JD Power said.

But the shift in global auto sales will be a major obstacle to efforts in controlling or reducing emissions from internal combustion engines - developing countries may be less inclined or capable of keeping pace with global norms in emission reduction, the report said.

In addition, buyers in emerging markets are more price-sensitive, which favors sales of the traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, the report said.

In average hybrid-electric or battery electric vehicles cost $11,000 more than conventional automobiles. Buyers in developing markets are unlikely to tolerate the price premium, it explained.