9. Delivering on long-term net zero emission targets would result in a temperature increase of about 1.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century

Last December, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre published a report titled "Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) 2021: Advancing Towards Climate Neutrality." The document takes stock of recent updates to national climate targets taking into account nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and national long-term net zero strategies (LTS).

Delivering on long-term net zero emission targets would result in a temperature increase of around 1.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. However, strong policy action is needed, as the report states that current policies may lead to a temperature increase of more than 3 degrees Celsius.

In the NDC-LTS pathway, emissions would peak around 2023 and then stabilize by mid-century, while current policies are only sufficient to stabilize global emissions by 2035-2040, according to the GECO 2021.