England will find out just how costly its failures against Australia, South Africa and New Zealand have been when the draw for the 2011 rugby World Cup was made late yesterday.
Manager Martin Johnson's inability to immediately lift the team he captained to the 2003 World Cup out of the doldrums led to three heavy defeats, culminating in Saturday's 6-32 loss to the All Blacks. That cost England fourth place in the rankings and a top seeding for the draw in London.
Down to sixth place in the International Rugby Board standings, England will be in the second-seeded group alongside Wales, France and Ireland. That leaves it exposed to being placed in the same first-round pool as one of the Tri-Nations teams or, if it is lucky, Argentina.
With England's traditional dominance of the maul completely decimated by the new experimental law variations, Johnson's inexperienced teams showed only flashes of the more expansive game he is aiming for in losing three games by a 26-102 margin. His approach may bear fruit over the three years left until the World Cup in New Zealand, but it won't help now.
Although England opened November with a promising win over the Pacific Islanders, it then labored against the southern heavyweights.
"Three weeks on the trot we have had the same situation," Johnson said. "I'm a realist. We disappointed with our performance while noting they're the best teams in the world. I still feel we could have played better."
But all Johnson can do for now is build his team for an improved showing in the Six Nations, starting with the visit of Italy in February. By then, Johnson will know at least two of the four teams England will meet in the first round of the World Cup.
The IRB will pick one team at random from each of the five pots in the draw, with top-ranked New Zealand, which completed a grand slam of wins over the home unions without conceding a try, World Cup holder South Africa, Australia and Argentina in the first.
Had England defeated New Zealand, it would have moved above Argentina into fourth place. Six Nations champion Wales took fifth by beating Australia 21-18 on Saturday.
So, Wales, England, France and Ireland are next up, followed by Scotland, Fiji, Italy and Tonga. The eight teams in the fourth and fifth pots will be decided after qualifying in Europe, North and South America, Oceania and Africa - with teams such as Uruguay and Canada likely.
That means England could be up against the All Blacks and Scotland in a tough first-round group, raising the prospect of a first-round exit.
(Agencies via Shanghai Daily December 2, 2008)
