British Prime Minister Theresa May [Photo/Xinhua]

The U.K. is now in the grips of a real-life intelligence battle that could have serious ramifications for European security. A former British double agent, who once worked in Russia, and who was captured and traded in a spy swap with Britain, has, along with his daughter, reportedly been poisoned in a nerve agent attack by Russian agents in England. Both are now in critical condition in a hospital. The severity of the attack is still under wraps, but the casualty list has risen to 21, according to British police. Most of those hospitalized have been released after medical checkups, but the two victims and one police sergeant remain hospitalized. If all is corroborated, it won't be just an assassination attempt, but an act of war or terrorism. 

That said, until a full investigation is carried out, no one can say with certainty what transpired. A motive still needs to be established, and there needs to be a proven chain of causality, all of which are still too early to confirm. British Home Secretary Amber Rudd has told the House of Commons that at this point, the entire British counter-espionage division is investigating the incident. Prime Minister Theresa May said, "If action needs to be taken then the government will do that," adding, "We will do what is appropriate, we will do what is right, if it is proved to be the case that this is state-sponsored."

Russia has, of course, denied involvement, but after three days, Russian state TV warned “traitors” that the long arm of the law will get them, wherever they are based. That may be as much of an admission as can be expected. 

The real question now is, what was the intended target? This is not the first time there's been such an espionage war between Britain and Russia. Litvinenko poisoning happened on U.K. soil, and British spies were caught collecting data with electronic devices in Moscow. The fundamental problem is that British leverage with Moscow is minimal. Russia was not the one who hollowed out the Royal Navy, or carry out police funding cuts, both of which wrecked British counter-intelligence, as well as domestic security and surveillance capability. If a foreign agent can carry out a chemical attack in a country without resistance, the fault lies with that country's counter-intelligence services. Britain is in this position now due to Blair-Cameron continuity. 

What's more, Britain cannot win a spy war with Russia. Britain lacks the resources, training and manpower. What it could do, though, is escalate it disproportionately. Or it could choose to target Russian oligarchs and funding in London. Or target the Russian mafia, and sex trafficking. Or target Russian black money in London's banking section. Britain could also provide deterrence in the Baltics. The British Navy, though a shadow of its former self, is nevertheless one of the most powerful in the world. 

Ultimately, however, this incident sets a terrifying precedent. It signals a move back to the dark days of the Cold War. It seems now that the world has indeed returned to a great power rivalry. If this can happen today in Britain, it can happen tomorrow in any other great nation. Chemical weapons are lab-produced and can be deployed not just against men, but against financial and mercantile interests of other major powers. Imagine a third-world battle ground, or an investment or military hub under attack by foreign intelligence, or even by rogue agents. If tomorrow American or Chinese bases of investment are attacked in such a manner, or people harmed, the consequences would be catastrophic. 

Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.ccgp-fushun.com/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm

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