Jerusalem [File photo]

The decision to move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem is an act of symbolism that will perhaps be the end of the peace process. But it was inevitable that this would happen under Donald Trump's government. And it is also an act of genius that will divide Trump's domestic enemies as well as traditional adversaries. But in the long run, it might also lead to a conflict, which was always coming. 

The shifting of the American embassy to Jerusalem is something which was pledged by presidents, both Republican and Democrat for decades. But no one wanted to follow through. It was an act which was supposedly fraught with geopolitical dangers. Politicians after politicians, including Senators, Congressmen, and Presidents paid lip service, but knew the cost of changing the status quo. Also, U.S. policy lately post-Cold war has been to plan for the two-state solution in Israel and Palestine, with Palestinians maintaining that East Jerusalem should be part of Palestine if and when there is a "two state solution."

Trump said, it was long overdue, and this is another way to advance a peace process, adding that the peace process and two-state solution can only happen, if Israel and Palestine both agree. "I have determined that it is time to officially recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel," Trump said in a statement, adding that he is doing nothing new, but just fulfilling the promise what previous presidents repeatedly made but "failed to deliver."

Trump opinioned that 50 years of U.S. approach hadn't changed anything, so it was time for a new approach, which was suited to the best interest of the United States. "I've judged this course of action to be in the best interests of the United States of America and the pursuit of peace between Israel and the Palestinians. This is a long-overdue step to advance the peace process and to work towards a lasting agreement."

The international reaction has been swift. China, Russia and India called for restraint so that nothing destroys the peace process. The U.K. tried to play both sides, as Boris Johnson said that careful steps need to be taken so that there's no blowback. 

But the biggest responses came from the Islamic world and the EU. Turkey opposed the step saying that there's a potential of a blowback, as did the King of Jordan. Saudi Arabia, Trump's partner in the Middle Eastern great power games, also warned that this might jeopardize the peace process. The PLO stated  the U.S. has lost any future say in Palestinian matters, just as Hamas warned that gates of hell will be opened as a result. 

The more vehement reactions came from the EU. France and Germany opposed this move, with Germany warning that this is a permanent break of EU and U.S. policy in the Middle East. This perhaps signifies a cleavage which was a long time coming. EU interests are going to be very different from the U.S. and in future there is a big rift coming. That is unless the EU collapses. There are already signs of EU and U.S. interests diverging with regards to trade and Russia. Now the Middle East is another place which adds to the list. 

But this is a political stroke. Trump just created a fait accompli. No future U.S. president would be capable of reversing this move, without a major political backlash. And if the EU tries to undo this and protests too much, it risks being called anti-Semite, and loses major cooperation with Israel as Israel remains a massive anti-terror and intelligence cooperation center. 

And it puts Saudi Arabia in a devil's bargain. The Saudis expected that Trump's overtures mean that they will have Americans and Israelis in their geopolitical great game against Iran. What they didn't expect is Trump's gamble. Now they cannot break away from cooperating against Iran. It's a bitter pill to swallow for the Saudis, as Iran now overtly takes the pro-Hamas position in the Middle East. 

What Trump did, is geopolitical arson. While in the short term there won't be a major change in the balance of power in the region, the repercussions will come in time. Whether they will be good or bad, only time will speak.

Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.ccgp-fushun.com/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm

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