One of the populist promises with which Donald Trump ensured his election to the U.S. Presidency concerned a rapid solution to the nuclear proliferation problem on the Korean peninsula. The rhetoric of the early months of his Presidency focused on blatant sabre-rattling, clearly implying that diplomacy had failed and that the U.S. was prepared to contemplate a military solution. In this way Trump hoped to deter the DPRK from proceeding further with missile testing, and to claim an easy foreign policy success.

However, the recent DPRK long-distance missile test appears to have demonstrated that Trump’s aggressive deterrence policy has failed. Trump proclaimed earlier this year that a DPRK ICBM capacity would not be allowed to happen, Now it has. The timing of the missile test, on the U.S. national day of July 4, conveyed an unmistakable message. It may even be that Trump’s threats accelerated the DPRK’s preparations.

American attempts at deterrence may have been checked by counter-deterrence. Confronted by a situation which they had promised would never be allowed to occur, what will the Americans do next?

It is most unlikely that the U.S. will allow their warlike rhetoric to intensify. If one carries on uttering empty threats one renders oneself ridiculous. Of course the military power of the U.S. is far superior to that of the DPRK, but that will not help. It must be clear to all Americans that military action would lead firstly to incalculable devastation, and secondly to unpredictable international ramifications as all regional powers would be dragged into involvement in some shape or form. The threat is not credible. The price of intercontinental war would be completely unacceptable, and the concept unthinkable.

But another aspect of the timing of the missile launch, though probably not specifically included in the DPRK’s planning, was its proximity to the state visit of China’s President Xi Jinping and his summit meeting with President Putin of Russia.

On the same day that the DPRK launched the missile, President Xi told Russian media that relations between China and Russia were currently at their "best time in history," and that Russia and China were each other's "most trustworthy strategic partners." Following the DPRK missile test, both leaders called for a freeze on further tests, but balanced this by a statement by the accompanying foreign ministers that the U.S. and the ROK should abstain from carrying out joint exercises. This comes after presidents Xi and Putin had earlier voiced their objection to the deployment of a U.S. anti-missile system (THAAD) in the ROK. President Xi was quoted by Xinhua on July 3 as saying that the THAAD deployment "seriously undermines the strategic security interests of China."

As has become normal practice in the new phase of Chinese diplomacy, the Sino-Russian accord was underpinned by a solid economic commitment: A $10 billion investment fund was announced for cross-border infrastructure projects linked to the Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union.

The result of the events of the last week is that responsibility for the management of the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula is seen to have moved towards the two neighboring states of China and Russia. The problem is not susceptible of any instant solutions, but the situation does need intensive managing.

And it does not currently look as though the U.S. has much of a role at present. There is as yet no sign of any revival of the “six-party” talks which formed the generally accepted format for negotiation around the turn of the millennium. Though the United States and China maintain some concerns in common regarding the averting of nuclear conflict and proliferation on the Korean peninsula, recent American actions have not really facilitated smooth cooperation. In fact the American mishandling of this issue may have placed the U.S. in a less favorable position for playing a useful role in this crucial situation.

The scene now moves to Hamburg in Germany, where the Chinese and Russian presidents meet other world leaders at the G20 summit on July 7. Clearly the Korean issue will feature prominently in the leaders’ discussions. It is notable that, in advance of the formal meeting, President Xi has sought out the new ROK President Moon Jae-in to assure him of China’s support and friendship.

It is clear that, if a Sino-Russian solution to the peninsular problems is to succeed, the ROK will have to play a part in this. In the meeting between the two leaders, President Xi emphasized the progress made in the 25 years since the establishment of China-ROK diplomatic relations, and made it clear that China supported the new ROK government's efforts to restart contact and dialogue with the DPRK. It is clear that China favours a regional solution to this problem, albeit one which fully respects resolutions of the UN Security Council.

Tim Collard is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.ccgp-fushun.com/opinion/timcollard.htm

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