Pro-growth policies won't induce a debt crisis

By Xu Gao
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail Beijing Review, May 19, 2016
Adjust font size:

Some have expressed concern that the domestic debt level may rise as a consequence of policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth. Such concern seems reasonable given that China relies primarily on investment, which is supported by debt financing, to shore up growth.

According to an estimation by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), the combined debt of households, enterprises and the government stood at 236 percent of China's GDP in 2014, more than 60 percentage points higher than in 2007. As economic growth slows and the return ratios of investment decline, rising debt levels seem to pose great risks.

Nevertheless, there is no direct correlation between high debt levels and a debt crisis. Spain's debt-to-GDP ratio was only 70 percent in 2011, even lower than Germany's at the time, but a debt crisis still occurred. In contrast, the current debt-to-GDP ratio of Japan is nearly 250 percent, yet there is no sign of a crisis.

Whether our pro-growth policies will trigger a debt spiral or not requires careful analysis. Evaluating the current economic climate, there is no present risk of such a crisis and no need to worry about these policies.

First, both assets and debt should be considered when assessing debt sustainability. In recent years, asset growth has kept pace with debt accumulation, thus China's debt-to-asset ratio has remained largely stable. According to the CASS estimation, the debt-to-asset ratio of the household sector was less than 10 percent in 2014, compared to 40 percent for the government; and the 60-percent ratio for non-financial companies was still lower than the 2000 level. Therefore, China's balance sheet and the balance sheets of multiple sectors are healthy.

In reality, foreign debt is most likely to trigger a crisis. For instance, the European debt crisis was caused by mounting foreign debt from EU countries. However, according to its International Investment Position statistics, China still had $1.6 trillion of net foreign assets after deducting foreign debt. Moreover, as most foreign assets held in China are in the form of foreign exchange reserves, it has superior liquidity to foreign debt primarily in the form of foreign direct investment. Consequently, China's foreign debt levels are reasonable.

The enormous level of domestic savings constitutes a solid foundation for China's debt sustainability. Some critics say that China has a low rate of consumption, which accounts for less than 40 percent of GDP, and a high debt level. However, they ignore the link between consumption and debt. Indeed, low consumption leads to a higher savings ratio--China's gross national savings account for nearly half of GDP. Eventually, household savings will be spent or invested in other forms. As China's stock market is underdeveloped, with stock financing accounting for less than 5 percent of overall finance in the last decade, savings are mostly transferred into corporate investment through bank lending. This causes total debt to rise.

Multiple reasons explain China's high savings ratio. Households' property income remains low; the underpowered social security system prompts residents to save for a rainy day e.g. illness or old age, and high housing prices have also played a role in curbing spending.

The government has taken a series of measures to boost consumption, but these have had no obvious effect. The high savings ratio will continue. If the savings are not effectively transferred into investment through bank lending, the Chinese economy will decline due to inadequate demand.

As foreign demand shrinks owing to the global financial crisis, China must transform huge domestic savings into demand through lending in order to catalyze growth. From this perspective, high debt levels have effectively been counterbalanced by high savings and there is maneuver room for increased debt, which is essential.

In a nutshell, China will not suffer a debt crisis as a result of pro-growth policies. The rise of domestic debt is necessary and measures to stabilize growth should not be abandoned out of fear of a debt crisis.

This is an edited excerpt of an article published in Economic Information Daily. The author is chief economist of Everbright Securities Co. Ltd.

Follow China.org.cn on Twitter and Facebook to join the conversation.
Print E-mail Bookmark and Share

Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)

No comments.

Add your comments...

  • User Name Required
  • Your Comment
  • Enter the words you see:   
    Racist, abusive and off-topic comments may be removed by the moderator.
Send your storiesGet more from China.org.cnMobileRSSNewsletter
主站蜘蛛池模板: 毛片在线看免费| 蜜桃麻豆WWW久久囤产精品| 在线观看免费成人| 三级理论在线播放大全| 日本人强jizzjizz老| 么公的好大好硬好深好爽视频想要| 欧美精品亚洲精品日韩1818| 伊人色综合久久| 精品人妻中文字幕有码在线| 国产-第1页-浮力影院| 韩国一级淫片漂亮老师| 国产无遮挡无码视频免费软件| 1000部拍拍拍18免费网站| 国产韩国精品一区二区三区| 99精品热这里只有精品| 妖精www视频在线观看高清| 中文亚洲日韩欧美| 收集最新中文国产中文字幕| 久久国产精品99久久小说| 最新国产三级久久| 亚洲久热无码av中文字幕| 欧美精品v国产精品v| 亚洲视频在线免费观看| 真实的国产乱xxxx在线播放| 动漫成年美女黄漫网站国产| 美女毛片免费看| 四虎影视永久在线观看| 色屁屁一区二区三区视频国产| 国产国语对白一级毛片| 黄大色黄美女精品大毛片| 国产成人精品免费视频大全| 亚洲综合校园春色| 国产精品一区亚洲一区天堂| 手机看片1024旧版| 国产精品午夜爆乳美女视频| 18禁黄网站禁片无遮挡观看| 国产精品高清在线观看93| 5566中文字幕| 国产精品永久免费| 在线免费你懂的| 国产精品亚洲аv无码播放|