China's structural reforms prevail, despite tough global landscape

By Dan Steinbock
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, March 11, 2016
Adjust font size:

Moreover, defense spending was budgeted to rise 7.6 percent, which represents a significant decrease from 10.1 percent last year. Neither represents a disruptive change; both reflect the ongoing balancing act.

In the past few years, Premier Li Keqiang has pushed structural reforms but shunned another huge stimulus, which would contribute to government debt. He favors smaller, targeted fiscal measures. In turn, gradual deleveraging seeks to reduce local government debt, which accumulated after the 2009 stimulus.

Undoubtedly, the most serious signal that the government is resolute about reforms is the pledge to reduce excess capacity even if it will require 3 million workers to be laid off in the coming 2-3 years.

Growth by fundamentals, growth by debt

Internationally, China's balancing act - the effort to couple structural reforms with rebalancing of the economy - is something unique.

Today, U.S. sovereign debt exceeds $19.1 trillion and the size of the economy. Europe has been struggling with massive sovereign debt crisis since 2010 and most core economies rely on debt-fueled growth. In Japan, Premier Abe's agenda has contributed to the debt burden, which is now almost 250 percent of the GDP. Washington still lacks of credible, bipartisan medium-term debt-reduction plan. Brussels lacks institutions to implement such plans regionally. Japan has a plan but it continues to contribute to debt.

Without effective growth, major advanced economies rely on ultra-low interest rates (U.S.), continued quantitative easing, or both (Europe, Japan). In contrast, China is engaged in a structural transformation, even as it is deleveraging.

The new range target of 6.5-7 percent growth for 2016 is ambitious but feasible. Assuming peaceful international environment and gradual domestic reforms, it is likely to further decelerate to about 5 percent by 2020. Assuming advanced economies can avoid contagious debt crises, U.S. annual growth is unlikely to exceed 2.5 percent, Eurozone expansion will remain less than 1.5 percent and Japanese growth will struggle at 0.5-1 percent. But that is growth by debt.

In contrast, China has potential to grow 2-3 times faster than major advanced economies, as long as market-oriented structural reforms will prevail. And that is growth by fundamentals.

Dan Steinbock is the founder of Difference Group and has served as research director at the India, China and America Institute (USA) and visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Centre (Singapore). For more, see www.differencegroup.net

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

<  1  2  


Follow China.org.cn on Twitter and Facebook to join the conversation.
ChinaNews App Download
Print E-mail Bookmark and Share

Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)

No comments.

Add your comments...

  • User Name Required
  • Your Comment
  • Enter the words you see:   
    Racist, abusive and off-topic comments may be removed by the moderator.
Send your storiesGet more from China.org.cnMobileRSSNewsletter
主站蜘蛛池模板: 成人片黄网站a毛片免费| 一个色中文字幕| 香蕉久久综合精品首页| 日韩美女性生活视频| 亚洲高清日韩精品第一区| 精品视频午夜一区二区| 国产强伦姧在线观看| 91成人免费在线视频| 极品丝袜乱系列在线阅读| 亚洲精品无码久久久久| 糖心VLOG精品一区二区三区| 国产三级自拍视频| 24小时免费看片| 大肉大捧一进一出好爽APP| 久久亚洲色一区二区三区| 晚上睡不着来b站一次看过瘾| 亚洲国产精品综合久久网各| 瑟瑟网站免费网站入口| 午夜小视频免费| www.日本在线观看| 日本三级在线观看免费| 久久婷婷五月综合97色一本一本| 深夜福利在线免费观看| 国产91小视频| 试看120秒做受小视频免费| 国产大学生粉嫩无套流白浆| 欧美jizz8性欧美| 国产裸体舞一区二区三区| 99精品在线看| 天堂俺去俺来也www久久婷婷| аⅴ中文在线天堂| 孩交videos精品乱子豆奶视频| 中文字幕在线看视频一区二区三区| 日本牲交大片免费观看| 久久无码人妻一区二区三区午夜| 欧美kkk4444在线观看| 亚洲天堂岛国片| 欧美成人精品a∨在线观看| 亚洲日韩国产成网在线观看| 欧美日韩高清在线| 亚洲日产韩国一二三四区|