The simple arithmetic of China's growth slowdown

By Danny Quah
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, March 18, 2015
Adjust font size:

Suppose you're an exporting business in the US. Ten years ago US GDP was $13.1 trillion; the IMF reckons that in 2015 the US economy will produce GDP equal to $18.3 trillion. Relative to the size of the US economy, China's expected 7 percent expansion in 2015 will be an increase in a potential export market of 4.3 percent; 10 years ago, that same ratio was just 2.1 percent. Put differently, China's expansion over the next 12 months – even at only 7 percent – will represent for a typical US exporter, relative to the economy he lives in, more than a doubling of the increase in size of this potential export market.

And what if you're not in the US? If you're in the EU, China's expansion is even more of an increased opportunity. Only if you're a fast-growing economy like the ASEAN-5, does China's 7 percent growth mean something not quite so large. But even then, the worst you can say is that China's 7 percent growth means you can expect simply the same relative increase in export business with China as you did a decade ago. That's hardly a catastrophe.

(The Table below traces out a range of numbers, confirming that the positive outcome I've just described for the US and the EU continues to hold even if China went to 6 percent growth, only a little bit less so. Of course if China's growth comes in at 8 percent, the news is correspondingly better.)

But, finally, what about the capacity of China's economy to create jobs? In 2013, the latest year reported in the World Bank's World Development Indicators, China's labor force numbered 793.3 million. China's average productivity (using IMF WEO GDP numbers) was, therefore, $11,900; this had grown by 12 percent from the previous year. If productivity were to continue to grow at that same rate, then an expansion of China's GDP by $790b will generate 53 million new jobs. Since China's rural population is about 500 million (slightly less than half of its total population), if all those 53 million new jobs were urban, this would still absorb 10 percent of the rural population as migrants.

(Again, the Table below shows what would happen for variation around this scenario.)

Follow China.org.cn on Twitter and Facebook to join the conversation.
   Previous   1   2   3   Next  


Print E-mail Bookmark and Share

Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)

No comments.

Add your comments...

  • User Name Required
  • Your Comment
  • Enter the words you see:   
    Racist, abusive and off-topic comments may be removed by the moderator.
Send your storiesGet more from China.org.cnMobileRSSNewsletter
主站蜘蛛池模板: 啪啪网站永久免费看| 国产精品99无码一区二区| 中文字幕久无码免费久久| 日韩高清特级特黄毛片| 亚洲国产精品ⅴa在线观看| 狠狠色丁香久久婷婷综合 | 中文字幕人成无码免费视频| 日韩一区二区三区精品| 亚洲av无码一区二区乱子伦as| 欧美日韩精品在线播放| 人人狠狠综合久久亚洲婷婷| 精品久久久久久亚洲精品| 国产91在线|日韩| 视频二区在线观看| 国产性夜夜夜春夜夜爽| 亚洲伦理中文字幕| 国产精品妇女一二三区| 91久久精品国产免费一区| 在线精品国产一区二区三区| fc2免费人成在线视频| 嫣嫣是女大生韩漫免费看| 两个人看的www免费高清| 收集最新中文国产中文字幕| 久久精品人人做人人爽电影蜜月| 欧美xxxxx高潮喷水| 亚洲午夜无码久久久久小说 | 91热视频在线| 图片区日韩欧美亚洲| av一本久道久久综合久久鬼色| 女大学生的沙龙室| www.99re6| 女人张开腿等男人桶免费视频| 一个人看的www免费高清| 小12箩利洗澡无码视频网站 | 免费国产小视频在线观看| 精品国产一区二区三区在线观看 | 国产福利1000| 中文字幕你懂的| 国产精品99久久久久久人| 视频二区调教中字知名国产| 国产精品亚洲四区在线观看|