The just concluded climate negotiations in Warsaw have been welcomed by developing countries as the principle of differentiation has been acknowledged, though they must now ensure it is included in the new treaty.

Marcin Korolec (C), President of COP19/CMP9, gives a thumps-up at the closing plenary of the 2013 UN Climate Change Conference in Warsaw, Poland, on Nov. 23, 2013. The United Nations climate talks on Saturday agreed on some major principles in Warsaw for a new global climate pact due to be agreed on in 2015 and enter into force after 2020. [Xinhua/Zhang Fan]

Differentiation in the Climate Convention is based on three considerations.

First, while all countries have to take "measures", the developed countries wanted the developing countries to make "commitments", now all countries have agreed to make "contributions".

Second the sacrosanct principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities", which helped to maintain differentiation over the past 20 years, has been redefined to reflect the current reality of growing emissions in both the developing and developed countries.

The third element of differentiation in the convention will now be the focus of negotiations in 2014 when "national preparations" are discussed at the multilateral level. The convention established a critical differentiation between the assessment of aggregated effects of measures taken by developing countries and review of emissions reduction commitments in individual developed countries. That is why avoiding reference to "commitments", voluntary or otherwise, is an achievement.

Emissions of carbon dioxide are the symptom of the distribution and use of natural resources, not their scarcity. We are faced with three interrelated global limits the carbon budget, consumption by the rich and comparable standards of living for the poor. How these limits are approached will depend on what is regarded as essential for human well-being.

The nature of industrialized societies urbanization is the major driving force for the increasing demand for materials and energy. Already cities produce three-fourths of global greenhouse gas emissions, which are directly related to household consumption shelter, mobility and food.

Urbanization involves two transitions, the establishment of infrastructure, or consumption of material resources, as a necessary part of the process of economic development, and later higher incomes support changes in consumption patterns, that are largely of non-material goods and services based on specific lifestyles. Both are direct inputs to human well-being.

An assessment of the patterns, trends and drivers of the activities that led to the utilization of the global carbon budget over the previous 100 years shows that emissions of carbon dioxide doubled between 1920 and 1950 when full electrification was completed in the developed countries; they had doubled again by 1970 when three-fourths of their population had moved to urban areas; and they doubled again thanks to the consumption patterns of their urban middle class only starting to stabilize around 2000. These trends must be recognized by the multilateral system when considering the emissions of developing countries.