The radical character of China's new policies has been welcomed by international environmental protection organisations. Greenpeace's director of climate and energy projects in China stated: "The Chinese government proposals to achieve significant improvement of air quality within a five year schedule fully reflects its determination in controlling air pollution"

This was the latest step in growing international awareness of and support for recent environmental policies China has commenced. Fatih Birol, the International Energy Agency's Chief Economist, recently noted, "The Chinese government has made huge efforts in energy efficiency, and a major effort in renewable energy such as hydroelectricity and wind." Anatol Lieven, professor of international relations at King's College London noted, "The Chinese are just as likely to make a Green Leap Forward because they understand that it is the economic future."

Air pollution does not merely degrade quality of life but is also a major health threat. China has not suffered a sudden single devastating catastrophe, such as London's 12,000 deaths in 1952, but reports, including by environmental group Greenpeace, estimate that pollution from the coal-fired power plants within the Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region causes significant health problems including deaths. In Beijing a serious problem is also caused by pollution from cars.

Given the seriousness of the problem and its sources, small measures, for example limiting the use of official cars, are valuable to indicate policy concerns but are inadequate themselves to deal with the situation. For success there must be fundamental changes in decisive economic areas such as power supply and transport.

Therefore, in addition to the new measures, it is encouraging that the Chinese authorities have indicated that China must pursue the necessary policies for a prolonged period to successfully resolve air pollution issues. Chai Fahe, vice-president of the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, stressed that there can be no quick victory, "Western countries have spent decades trying to improve their air quality, and are still trying. What China is doing here is trying its best to make improvements happen as soon as possible, but we also need to be realistic about the hardships ahead and prepare for a protracted war against pollution. It's a war that will involve every single member of the public."

The timescale in which success can be achieved can be indicated not only by statistics but also from practical experience. It is not by accident that China's current GDP per capita is approximately equal to that of the UK in the early 1950s when it suffered the Great Smog -- although China's economy is growing much more rapidly than the UK at that time and therefore it will take much less time for China to achieve current UK levels of economic development. In a decade the UK was able to eliminate its disastrous smogs -- by 1962 the London smog was unpleasant but it did not result in a significant number of deaths. Over a 20 year period further significant advances in air quality and the elimination of pollution from the river Thames radically improved the situation. Other European countries, notably Germany, have had even greater environmental successes than the UK.

The key lesson from countries which have made major steps forward in environmental protection is that legal steps must be linked with economic solutions -- purely legal changes, not accompanied by economic shifts will be inadequate. The necessity of achieving much enhanced environmental protection also shows the error in some confused ideas on China's economic development. Environmental protection requires a high level of investment as non-polluting methods of transportation, power generation, and construction are more expensive than polluting ones. As Zhou Dadi, vice-chairman of the China Energy Research Society, rightly pointed out, "Improving the environment is basically a form of construction, and one that definitely requires investment from society." Environmental protection therefore cannot be carried out by cutting the level of investment in China as some propose, on the contrary it will require very high levels of investment.

Fortunately China has already achieved a leading position in some of the key technologies which are required. For example, the Transition movement, an international environmental activity movement, noted "China makes 80 percent of the world's solar panels… it is also installing renewables at a faster rate than any other country, and last year produced more solar and wind power than anyone else." It stated, "By contrast Washington seems to be stuck in the past, in thrall to fossil fuel companies."

The radical new measures China has announced are therefore important in themselves. But they are only a first chapter in one of the most important challenges of the 21st century -- how China can build an advanced economy with not only high living standards but sustainable environmental protection in a country of 1.3 billion people.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.ccgp-fushun.com/opinion/johnross.htm

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