Revolutions come in many forms, but each needs an ultimate political goal – and to be successful, must be led by an organized vanguard. That's the lesson of a century of world history. Most successful 20th century revolutions resulted from consistent struggle over long periods. In the 21st century, however, they happen quickly, and don't last so long. The Russian Revolution in 1917, the China triumph in 1949, the Cuban victory in 1959, victory in Vietnam in 1975, Grenada and Nicaragua in 1979, the liberation of Mozambique, Angola, Zimbabwe and South Africa in the 1980s and freedom in South Africa in the 1990s – all of these revolutions were led by vanguard parties and liberation movements, over long periods featuring sacrifices of blood, sweat and tears.

Changes by ballot at the time also saw socialist, anti-imperialist, popular democratic and progressive parties elected in several countries worldwide. Several quick regime changes in the following decade resulted in reversals of progressive gains worldwide. But none of the "new democracies" that emerged were vanguard parties or liberation movements with strong, popular, class-conscious, tried-and-tested, indefatigable and identifiable leaders who had earned and demonstrated their leadership qualities over time. Most were new political mechanics offering quick fixes to old and new social and economic problems.

Two decades after the collapse of socialism in Europe, there has been a reduction in the number of revolutionary uprisings in Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean and the Middle East. In the first decade of new millennium, the failure of capitalism to cure national economic and social maladies has reversed the gains of pro-capitalist parties in the West, exposing the rotting underbelly of global capitalism. The wealth gap has continued to widen beyond imaginable proportions. New and modern wealthy classes have directly replaced the old autocratic and aristocratic ruling class forces originally uprooted by the earlier revolutions led by vanguard parties. Poverty and unemployment have taken hold like never before in former socialist bloc states, while new forms of corruption have bred new money titans, particularly in Russia. The rulers of the "new democracies" in Eastern Europe have failed to deliver on promised changes, many ending-up in sectarian or ethnic strife and descending into social and economic malaise, some desperately seeking refuge in the European Union.

In the new millennium, a new definition has evolved for a "revolution." The mass uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa – christened by the West as the "Arab Spring" – are described as "revolutions," but have lacked the sustained and organized processes that led to earlier revolutions. The "Arab Spring" was sparked by isolated events that went viral across the entire world. It was beamed globally by the modern social media. None of the "Arab Spring" uprisings had a centrally coordinated political leadership. They were largely galvanized instant responses to accumulated frustrations, led by coalitions of unlikely forces united only in their determination to see regime change. But in no case had there been any endorsed agreement on "what was next" after the regime was toppled.

Today's mass popular protests aren't exclusive to the Middle East and North Africa, however. They're no different from recent actions across America and Europe, as the masses resorted to riots and arson to protest against poverty, discrimination and immigrant witch-hunts in the U.K., France and other EU states. Also similar was the "occupy movement" that emerged in the U.S. during the recent global financial crisis and spread to Europe, or the widespread popular protests against harsh austerity measures imposed in Italy, Greece, Portugal, Spain and across the Eurozone.

In the Middle East, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya and Egypt have all seen regime change, but the people who made these changes happen have lost the spring in their step. The changes promised have largely remained dreams.

In Egypt, the army remains the most powerful institution, stronger than the government and religion. In the absence of a vanguard party or allied coordinating entity, those who took to the streets for two regime changes in the past two-and-a-half years happily welcomed army intervention to complete their desired mission. The all-powerful army is now again in full power, but not the people. The uniformed elite is now even more entrenched in the national political and defense power structure than ever before.

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. Similarly, in the absence of an organized vanguard, any popular national revolt can easily be hijacked. Without revolutionary leadership, a revolutionary process simply won't evolve.

It so happens that in the land of the ancient pyramids, the people's will for a real revolution will continue, as the new pharaohs wear smart army uniforms.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://china.org.cn/opinion/earlbousquet.htm

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