The triumph of democracy? [By Jiao Haiyang/China.org.cn]

July 3 witnessed another political earthquake in Egypt. Abdel Fatah al-Sissi, chief of the Egyptian armed forces, declared the removal of President Mohamed Morsi from office. This latest event indicates once more that Arab countries, including Egypt, have not been prepared for a democratic system characterized by the model of one-person-one-vote elections. The Arab world still has a long way to go.

It is true that democracy is one of the major sources of legitimacy of governments in the West and will probably be the suit that countries with other backgrounds will eventually follow. Arab governments will also have to embrace a system of elections as part of their efforts to build legitimacy.

The collapses of Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, Muammur Qaddafi of Libya, Ben Ali of Tunisia and Salehi of Yemen can be more or less attributed to their poor legitimacy foundation. Reasons are multiple. For instance, people of these countries are not granted the opportunity to choose who will govern them, though they are dissatisfied with their living status in a world where government corruption often thrives.

However, this does not mean that the Arab world has been fully prepared for a Western style democracy. Firstly, Arab countries are not politically set to adopt this democratic system. In Egypt's case, partly due to the penetration of Western ideology, the general public has become more and more aware of its political rights; on the other hand, various political forces have not yet been sufficiently developed to participate in political activities.

That is the reason why the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) has so easily won the first presidential and legislative elections. Compared with other political parties, they have much more mature institutions, are more closely connected with their local and usually lower-class constituents and feature much better organization.

On a second note, Arab countries have not yet been prepared for democracy on an economic level. For reasons known and unknown, the Middle East has thus far remained underdeveloped. Egypt should have no serious economic problems. The nation possesses one-sixth of world's historic relics, which could attract a huge number of tourists from across the globe. It also receives military assistance from the U.S., in the amount of more than US$1 billion.

Unfortunately, Egypt's GDP per capita has remained low as unemployment rates have remained high. This might be a result of poor management or one of serious corruption. Since the 2011 revolution, Egypt has been plunged into an even worse economic situation. For instance, the GDP per capita in 2012 only amounted to about US$2578, one of the lowest among Arab countries, and unemployment rates increased from 13 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 to 13.20 percent in the first quarter of 2013.

Poor economic conditions are always the enemy of political transition. Dissatisfaction out of economic reasons does not only disturb the social, political and economic order, but also disrupt the transition. The confrontation between Morsi's government and the protestors primarily stemmed from a poor economic situation.

From a merely cultural perspective too then, we find the Arab world is not ready for democracy. People in countries with mature election systems would wait for another four or five years to make changes when they are not content with the incumbent government. This is not the case in the current Arab world. Once the feelings of frustration set in, people take to the streets due to a lack of experience with Western style democracy. Even the armed forces seem to be short-sighted instead of showing patience. In addition, they are strongly motivated by any newly aroused revolutionary fervor.

Nevertheless, despite them appearing unprepared, Arab governments in the long run will have to construct their legitimacy based on elections, though these may not necessarily take the route as those held in Western countries. Yet before this time comes, they still have a lot of work to do. And it will be an extremely long process.

Political parties will have to learn how to build mature institutions so as to be better organized to deal with political competition. The people will have to learn how to express their requests through constitutional channels, instead of just taking their dismay to the streets. It is even more important that they should understand economic development cannot be achieved overnight.

In reality, several non-Arab countries in the Middle East have provided examples in this regard. Turkey, despite its recent anti-government protests, has remained and proved to be the most stable case in point. Nonetheless, Turkey has been practicing and learning the process for approximately one century. Time and patience will prove to be key.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://china.org.cn/opinion/jinliangxiang.htm

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