A spokesman for the Supreme Military Command of North Korea announced on March 5, 2013 that it would nullify the Korean War Armistice Agreement signed in 1953, in response to the hostile policies and sanctions from both the U.S. and South Korea. Meanwhile, the North has also decided to halt the work of its delegation in Panmunjom, where the North and South Korean delegates usually meet for official talks.

The North Korea's sudden "change of face" came a little faster than expected as mere days before the announcement was made, former American basketball star Dennis Rodman had visited Pyongyang and watched a basketball exhibition game together with Kim Jong Un in a friendly atmosphere.

But actually, it's not the first time for North Korea to ignore the Korean War Armistice Agreement. Back in 2009, it said the same thing right after conducting a second nuclear test and then blamed South Korea for dragging the Korean Peninsula into a state of war after the latter had formally joined the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). During the following three years, the relationship between the two sides sunk to the depths of several big crises including the Cheonan Incident (March 2010), but the generally peaceful situation of the Korean Peninsula has not been altered.

War impossible

Speaking from a purely military perspective, there is very little chance at war. Even though the North possesses an army of over one million, its equipment and system have remained at the 1970s level. The North Korea knows this better than any other country. That is also why it started to focus on building nuclear weapons of mass destruction and training Special Operations Forces in recent years.

If war is not a possibility, why is the North Korea behaving this way?

The timing of this North Korea warning comes right after the cut in U.S. military expenses. The implementation of the U.S.' strategy of returning to Asia will be postponed. The all-round peace talks with North Korea will not be in the interest of the U.S. since it plans to retain its influence in South Korea whilst at the same time containing China. Because of the presence of China and Russia, it is also impossible for the U.S. to solve the Korean problems (subverting the North Korean regime from within or outside) in near future. It is expected that the U.S. will handle this crisis in a low-profile manner.

Containing China

The location of North Korea has decided that China has to pay keen attention to this area. It is almost the only choice for China to support the North as long as it is not a regime which goes against China. China has been taking a "warn but do not put into action" approach to handling the North Korea issues. On the one hand, China has condemned its nuclear testing under pressure from the U.S. and the international community, while on the other hand China also does not wish any sanctions against it since this is not in accordance with China's own national interests.

The saying "a sanction against North Korea is equal to a sanction against China" is nothing new to the West. The North has been subjected to the sanctions of western countries for a long time and on the long-term. Although it has been trying to expand its basic farming over the past 20 years, the country is still unable to realize its self-sufficiency in terms of food due to the lack of fertilizers and fuels for agricultural machinery. If the sanctions further expand, it will lead to a more severe humanitarian crisis in the country. The Chinese government might have to adjust and expand its assistance to the country as to ease the pressure of the sanctions.

Although the U.S. is pressing China to agree with its sanctioning plans, it also expects China to exert more influence on the North because of the fact that the U.S. is unable to overthrow the regime at this moment. China is attempting to soften the stance of North Korea and let it accept the ultimate goal of abandoning nuclear weapons within the framework of the Six-Party Talks. The more rational choice for the North would be to obtain a security commitment from the U.S. and strategic shelter from other countries by any means including the method of "threatening" the U.S. No party is an absolute winner in this game of counterbalance.

In the face of such circumstances, China must re-evaluate the security needs of North Korea and find a suitable path to guarantee the peace on the Korean Peninsula while ensuring China's own security as well as the balance of the regional structure.

The author is an observer on foreign diplomacy and military issues.

This post was first published in Chinese and translated by Wang Qian.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.