The sharp decline in the number of Chinese high school students taking the national college entrance examination since 2008 is certain to harm the country's economic development in the long run. It also implies that the quality of students admitted will drop, and the labor force will subsequently be less able to secure the kind of rapid development necessary to support an increasingly aging society.

The sharp decline in the number of Chinese high school students taking the national college entrance examination since 2008 is certain to harm the country's economic development in the long run. It also implies that the quality of students admitted will drop, and the labor force will subsequently be less able to secure the kind of rapid development necessary to support an increasingly aging society. [File Photo]

About 9 million students across China sat for the national college examination, or Gaokao, on June 7-8, and this number is down 14.3 percent on 2008's record 10.5 million test takers. The university admission rate, by contrast, rose from 57 percent in 2008 to this year's estimated figure of 75 percent, a figure which levels the admission rate in the U.S. It's also estimated that all high school test-takers will be admitted in 2018 in the light of the current trend.

However, the situation has caused great concern as a great number of colleges have dramatically lowered their admission criteria in order to enroll more students. Some vocational institutions went as far as to set an entry threshold as low as 150/750 points, which is the equivalent of 20/100 in the 100-mark system.

Of the various reasons behind the decline in the number of students taking the "Big Test", the principal one is that the graduation-age population has fallen at an alarming rate. The latest population census indicates that, in 2019, the college-age (18-22) group will slip to about 53 percent of the 2009 figure. Even in Shandong, a province with a large population base, the figure in 2013 will be only half of that in 2008.

The drop in the number of test-takers, as a result of the "only-child policy", is a serious warning for the country, with public concern centering on fears that colleges won't have enough students in the coming years. Some scholars also argue that a college education does not necessarily lead to academic or career success for all and that, in addition, a balanced society requires that people are engaged in a range of different pursuits.

The main side effect of the shrinking college-age population is the deterioration of the quality of college students, as has been shown in Taiwan as well as abroad in countries such as Japan and South Korea.

The late Harvard psychologist Richard J. Herrnstein and American Enterprise Institute political scientist Charles Murray argued in their controversial co-authored book "Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life" that intelligence is inherited, and, to date, we have not found a way to refine this trait. What education can achieve is to help develop the current intelligence potential. Murray later claimed that there's no need for people of medium intelligence to go to college, as they would not be admitted to good colleges. Less able students will not gain maximum benefit from a college education, since colleges are where social elites are cultivated.

Another negative outcome is that there will be less talented personnel in the future, which will subsequently lead to decaying S&T capabilities. As a result, China's national competitiveness will diminish and go into a steady decline.

The drop in China's college-age population, or youngsters, will also result in a severe labor shortage, meaning that rapid social and economic development will be curtailed, while an increasing number of pensioners will require financial support from the state.

Furthermore, we are likely to see regional imbalances, as rural areas have already witnessed mass youth migration to big cities and developed regions of the country. It is, and will be, therefore, difficult if not impossible for rural and less-developed areas to drive their future development when deprived of young talent.

Presently, China is still enjoying significant economic growth, despite the fact that its rapidly aging population. The reason for this is that as a developing country, China still has tremendous potential for urbanization and industrialization. However, when colleges start to close because they are unable to admit either enough, or adequately qualified high school graduates, we should take it as a sign that China could no longer continue its growth.

(This post was published in Chinese and translated by Zhang Junmian.)

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