Holding nothing back [By Hou Xiaoqiang/China.org.cn]

With each new report and analysis, the U.S. military's presence looms ever larger above the Asia-Pacific stage as it prepares its encore as a key actor.

This proceeding is openly welcomed by countries in the region – those that see the U.S. as a relatively benign force without any territorial ambitions. They also consider themselves as having ideological and historical affinities with the U.S., so that it can provide them with a comforting "security blanket."

China tends to view the U.S. military presence as part of a "containment policy" reminiscent of the Cold War. Yet rather than focusing on the U.S.'s tactics, it might be more useful to instead consider why the welcome mat is being laid out by the nations of Southeast Asia.

I was in Singapore recently while its new foreign minister, K. Shanmugan, was visiting Washington to sign an agreement with U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton during the two countries' annual strategic talks. This year, the talks produced a strengthened military-to-military cooperative framework.

Coupled with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta's announcement that the U.S. could end its combat role in Afghanistan next year rather than the originally scheduled 2014, the strategy of disengagement on land in favor of a Pacific-wide air-sea battle capability has clearly emerged to protect the interests of America and its regional allies.

Last November, it was announced the U.S. would base 2,500 Marines in Darwin in Northern Australia. American military bases in the Philippines had shut down in the 1990s, but Manila has announced it will stage more joint exercises with the U.S., and although there would not be any permanent bases like before, the U.S. would rotate more troops through the country. The Philippines also seeks to expand its navy and obtain advanced jet fighters from the U.S.

The troop rotation scheme under a "Visiting Forces Agreement" supports America's rapid response capability and further projects its power in the South China Sea. In addition, since 1995, the U.S. Pacific Fleet has participated in annual naval exercises with nearly all the nations of Southeast Asia around the South China Sea under the Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) program. China is increasingly viewing these as threats to its expanding economic and strategic interests.

So, what does this mean for Sino-American relations, which provide the only realistic basis for long-lasting peace and security in Southeast Asia?

In the eyes of Beijing, these American actions seek to undermine China's ability to become a full-fledged rival superpower. The U.S. policy are like those flexible floating rings used to contain maritime oil spills – they could be tightened or loosened depending on China's actions.

Singapore and the Philippines are members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. ASEAN's political strategy since the 1990s has been one of "constructive engagement" with China, seeking to draw it into a cooperative framework in which it would have a big stake in ensuring regional stability.

From conversations with some respected analysts in Singapore, I gained the impression that ASEAN now regards this initiative as falling short of achieving its goals, and this is partly due to the ongoing disputes over Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea that worry its neighbors. Hence, ASEAN members have decided to hedge their bets by getting closer to the U.S.

It has been suggested this marks America's return to a region it withdrew from after the debacle of the Vietnam War. In truth, it never left. While the army's attention was indeed diverted to the Middle East and South Asia (e.g. Iraq and Afghanistan), the forces of the Pacific Fleet remained on station.

This naval force currently comprises 180 ships, including aircraft carriers that commission some 2,000 aircraft, backed by a distinct technological advantage and with a total of 125,000 personnel. Despite China's efforts to develop a "blue water" naval capability, it cannot match this power, even though it is trying hard in that regard by acquiring an aircraft carrier and submarine capabilities backed by the development of pilotless reconnaissance and attack aircraft (drones).

It is against this backdrop that the South East Asian nations turn to the U.S. as their ultimate security guarantor, backed by the recognition of its advantages as a source of investment and technology. There is no American coercion; the initiative has come from the region's own changing climate.

China's responses to this new pro-American stance, such as in the cases of the Philippines and Australia, are statements that they will or should be punished for "playing with fire." These responses are not helpful. Instead, China needs to examine why Southeast Asia feels the need to get closer to America, and what it can do to alleviate the underlying causes.

While China sees America as a disruptive presence, Singapore Foreign Minister Shanmugam took the opposite view. "U.S. engagement in Asia has been the foundation for peace and prosperity in the region," he said. "We welcome this."

It is time for China to take a look at what has gone wrong to its high-profile peace diplomacy.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.ccgp-fushun.com/opinion/geoffreymurray.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.