Quicker with the draw [By Jiao Haiyang/China.org.cn]

Iran began its military drill, dubbed as "Velayat-e 90," on Saturday, Dec. 24. This does not necessarily mean that Iran will really carry out a naval blockade of the Hormuz Strait, though it does trigger world concern about Iran's possibly intentional disruption of oil transit as a result of the disputes over its nuclear program with the United States. Iran is actually a rational state despite its frequent harsh rhetoric.

Being geographically approximate to the Strait, which controls the seaborne transit of a significant proportion of oil in the world, especially shipments to east and south Asian countries, has always been Iran's advantage in its efforts countering external pressure and isolation. Potential closure of the Hormuz Strait in particular has been employed as a strategy in its bargaining for its reasonable rights for the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

The last two months have seen the world's mounting pressure on Iran for its nuclear program. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israeli government would make the right decision at the right moment; and the U.S. President Barack Obama said that all options were on the table. As the threat of war elevated, MP Parviz Sorouri of the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Committee openly declared in regard to the drill: "If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure".

However, it is one thing to threaten to blockade the Strait, but quite another to really do it. Just as other major international actors, Iran also carefully calculates before taking a serious action, though its actions usually seem to be crazy. It is highly unlikely that Iran will close off the Strait without considering resulting scenarios. Closure will disrupt the stable supply of oil to the world market, and will certainly undermine global economy. However, it will also be a suicidal move for its own economy, which heavily depends on the oil industry. This year, the value of Iran's exports topped $140 billion, with oil and derivative products accounting for $120 billion.

A war against Iran to both overthrow its Islamic regime and shut down its nuclear program may be the first scenario that Iran will face. In such a case, Iran will try all possible means, conventional war or asymmetrical measures, to block the sea transport of the Hormuz. Iran has all along regarded the survival of its regime as its core national interests. For Tehran, without regime, the country's economy is meaningless to have.

Though the United States has long had the impetus for Iran's regime change, no American presidents, from Jimmy Carter to Barack Obama, had really taken action in that regard. It seems that no reasonable American president in the near future will decide to take that initiative either. Unlike Saddam's Iraq and Qaddafi's Libya, Iran is a far bigger country both in its territory and population. For instance, Iran's population is 2.5 times that of Iraq and 10 times that of Libya. Iran is also one of the very few Middle East countries whose nation-building is successful. With fierce anti-Americanism, its citizens are much more nationalistic, and its military forces are infused with Islamic ideology.

A targeted attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel might be the second scenario that Iran will have to face. The narrowness of Israel's territory is one of the sources of its anxiety for its security, and Iran's frequent threats of destroying the Jewish state add to its distress. But Iran will not necessarily blockade the Strait since such an attack from Israel, even if it is successful, cannot irreversibly destroy all of its nuclear facilities. Iran has no reason, by blocking the oil transport, to hurt its own economy while antagonizing its biggest customers and the world.

While there are strong voices that Iran should maintain its tit-for-tat strategy toward external pressure, there are also rational ones. Shortly after MP Parviz Sorouri's hard line comments, Ramin Mehmanparsat, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, announced that closing the Strait of Hormuz is not on the country's agenda. Iran does not want the confrontations.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit http://www.ccgp-fushun.com/opinion/jinliangxiang.htm

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