Japan, too, is anxious not to be left behind, especially with China now beginning to develop an aircraft carrier capability. Unlike the 'hunter-killer' drones the US relies on, however, Tokyo is more interested in a weaponless observer plane that could remain in the sky for long periods for reconnaissance.

If anything untoward were spotted, the drones would then guide either missiles or manned aircraft to strike.

This desire for stronger monitoring capability is spurred by about 40,000 sq. km. of ocean and islands being claimed by both China and Japan as part of their respective Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), and is mirrored by moves by China to step up its maritime surveillance.

The potential for trouble has been highlighted by the long-time dispute over a group of East China Sea islands called the Senkakus in Japan and Diaoyu in China – a topic I remember writing about as a journalist in Tokyo in the 1970's.

The Japanese Government has pledged to boost the country's intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities; a report by a government advisory panel explicitly called for 'the introduction of high-altitude ISR, including UAV.'

The Japanese military is equipped with advanced technology on land and sea and in the air, but its capabilities have never been tested since WWII. Operating under a pacifist constitution (imposed by the postwar American occupation), it has no attack-oriented potential such aircraft carriers or long-range bombers – resulting in numerous political contortions to get round the problem.

However, defense of vital sea-lanes has been deemed as not violating the constitution and one would expect the drone technology to be similarly justified.

This inch-by-inch move towards what one might call 'military normality' is also evidenced by signs Tokyo is going to ease the self-imposed ban on international joint arms development.

Japanese defense contractors have long complained they cannot keep costs down or keep up with global cutting-edge arms technologies because of the restriction, and both American and European companies are anxious to get involved in developing a new generation of fighter aircraft for Japan.

It is certainly looking far ahead. The government's 'Future Fighter Research & Development Vision', for example, provides details of a sixth-generation 'stealth' fighter concept called i3 (informed, intelligent and instantaneous) that may not appear in its final form until the 2040s.

Of course, Japan, like China and the United States, is pledged to work hard on the diplomatic front to maintain normality and ensure the technologies are never required to be used in local combat. But, just in case…….

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.ccgp-fushun.com/opinion/geoffreymurray.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.