Though Gaddafi's not-so-successful modernization has changed some of the features of Libya's traditional society, eastern and western Tribal groups remain the major components of the Libyan political system. Conflicts between these tribal groups are still the distinguishing characteristic of Libyan politics.

Judging by the nature of these groups, a "liberated" Libya is highly unlikely to establish the kind of democracy prescribed by the West. On the contrary, post-Gaddafi Libya will probably evolve into a kind of power sharing mechanism among different tribal groups; similar to what currently exists in Lebanon, Iraq and in some ways Afghanistan. The US-style democratic nation-state cannot necessarily be easily adapted to a country like Libya, since the people indentify more with tribes than they do with the nation. Keeping these principles in mind, it is not difficult to imagine what kind of prospects Libya has for democracy in the future.

NATO's military action against Gaddafi was certainly not a random choice. In February and March of this year, anti-establishment protests in the Middle East seemed to taper off, with no more regimes falling after Tunisia and Egypt. This was not the domino effect the West had expected. Therefore, it became a logical choice to use military means to continue the trend.

The overthrow of Gaddafi's regime will also have far reaching impacts on regional politics. Without this new development, Assad's Syria and Saleh's Yemen might have been able to quell their respective uprisings. After nearly a year of unrest, anti-government forces are dwindling and the situation in those two countries has been gradually forgotten by the international community.

However, the collapse of Gaddafi's regime will certainly create new impetus on the streets of Damascus and Sana. It wouldn't be unexpected if there are new demonstrations and protests in the two countries in the coming days. Other Middle Eastern countries which have been relatively calm in the last months, including Saudi Arabia, will also face new challenges from within. The West might even be more encouraged to enhance its intervention into regional affairs after the initial successes.

When, then, will be the end of the Middle East turmoil?

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn For more information please visit http://www.ccgp-fushun.com/opinion/jinliangxiang.htm.

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