Unmoved by the international community's efforts to seek a peaceful resolution to the Libyan crisis, NATO has launched its heaviest ever bombardment against government installations in Tripoli. Despite this, Libya's political future is as uncertain as the day NATO began military intervention three months ago.

The stalemate is as much the result of Libya's domestic turmoil as it is NATO's political goals, particularly the goals of the US, France and the UK.

Although the UN Security Council resolution mandated protecting civilians not regime change, these Western countries seek to oust Gaddafi and install a democratic system of their own devising. They have apparently been encouraged by the recent power changes in Tunisia and Egypt. But before we can have a clear idea of Libya's future there are a number of issues obscuring the outlook.

Gaddafi

Rumors have been rife about Muammar Gaddafi. He has been wounded. He is in hiding. He has lost control of his forces. Yet, again and again, a defiant Gaddafi has surfaced, vowing to fight to the bitter end. His forces may have turned from the offensive to the defensive, but they have so far managed to hold on to Tripoli. Even as NATO extends its bombing for another three months, it is still anyone's guess if and when Gaddafi will leave.

Gaddafi loyalists

Gaddafi's days may be numbered, but his supporters will still be around. It is dangerously naive to imagine that the opposition based in Benghazi will simply take over the country on their own terms once Gaddafi is gone. If forces fighting for Gaddafi are not accepted into the post-Gaddafi political order, basic security and stability in Libya will still be threatened. To date, there have been no signs of a compromise.