Reproduction is a basic human right that needs to be respected. Anyone who tramples on the right to have children will inevitably be punished. We should not get too complacent with the rapid decline in the fertility rate. This temporary victory comes at a high price. We will face even greater risks and challenges in the future. Formulated when China still had a planned economy, the "one-child" policy has become outdated. The government should have changed it in the 1990s when the country started experiencing negative natural population growth.

A country should not aim to maximize its fertility rate, but neither should it minimize it. Rather, the rate should vary depending on the aspirations, choices and size of the childbearing age population. After decades of experiments, we have realized that the size of the population is not the only demographic problem the country faces. Having balanced population development is more important and difficult to achieve than reducing the populations size. Population control standards should be moderate, reasonable and balanced.

An appropriate fertility rate exists for both the country and families. High-level officials propose to continue to improve the existing policy. This position indicates the current birth rate of about 1.5 is not appropriate. First, for many years, the policy has failed to garner the support of many people, especially farmers. Second, the policy has resulted in an unbalanced sex ratio and gender inequity. Third, one-child families have aggravated the problem of taking care of the elderly. All this calls for a change in the family planning policy.

Unswervingly adherence to the "one-child" policy does not bring about improvement to the policy. The notion of a moderately low fertility rate means we should balance "what we do" with "how we do it." To achieve balanced population development in the long run, the government should take measures to ensure that the population maintains a reasonably low fertility rate. Proper education and family planning advising have to be integral parts of any measure that is taken. But the family planning policy should be open to changes, especially after a moderately low fertility rate is realized.

It is estimated that the current average fertility rate in China is between 1.4 and 1.8. The rate will probably continue to fall given the rapid urbanization and modernization the country is going through.

This decline in the fertility rate has resulted mainly due to economic and cultural factors. As a proposal at the 1974 World Population Conference in Bucharest put it, "development is the best contraceptive." Once the total fertility rate is below 1.3, it will be more difficult to encourage births than to control.

From a sustainable population development perspective, the total fertility rate should be maintained at about 2.1. To achieve that, China should loosen its family planning policy and allow every couple to have two children. This is a sustainable growth rate. In fact, allowing couples to have two children would stabilize the fertility rate around 1.8, because some couples would still prefer to have one child or no child at all, and 10 to 15 percent of all couples in the country reportedly suffer from infertility.

Based on the above analysis, China should loosen its family population policy as soon as possible. The government should combine family planning with social planning to optimize population growth. More importantly, it should take measures to ensure that the country reaches a moderate fertility rate and maintains a balanced demographic structure. And its investment in family planning should be aimed at achieving all-round development both for society and individuals. The government also has to keep modifying its family and social planning so that it can offer quality service to newborns and their parents, especially mothers, and let every reproductive-age couple decide the number of children they want to have.

Professor Mu Guangzong is from the Institute of Population Research, Peking University.

(This article was written in Chinese and translated by Li Huiru.)

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