Luo Jun

Editor's Note: In recent months, many official US economic figures, including the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, released an air of optimism throughout the US and other countries. The US seems to have put one foot out of the recession. Is a new era of growth coming? Has the US finally recovered from the recession? What are the opportunities and challenges facing China's manufacturing industry? Huanqiu.com (HQ) interviewed Luo Jun (Luo), CEO of Asian Manufacturing Association, on these issues.

HQ: US economic figures are picking up. Does this indicate the end of US manufacturing problems and the global recession?

Luo: New residential sales in the US for October 2010 rose by 17.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted high of 32,000 homes, faster growth than economists had expected and the highest level in eight months. Both housing market and investment have been booming and unemployment has been curbed.

All of these may signal a recovery of the US economy, which, however, cannot assure us of a whole-scale revival. In fact we should rely on the 2011 economic performance data to forge a judgment on whether the US has completely escaped recession.

The potential threats to the recovery are the US fiscal sustainability. State governments' uncontrolled deficit may lead to a second bottom and a chain of severe consequences.

Other uncertainties include the safety of European sovereign solvency. Objectively the status quo is still volatile and unpredictable. But many people believe the most difficult time has passed, nevertheless.

The economic recession originated in the US, and traumatized the country's economy from almost all aspects. But the US didn't suffer a complete devastation of its economic supremacy. The US is still the biggest and most competitive economy in the world.

Apart from some specific fields such as finance and the auto industry, which underwent a series of readjustments, the US still monopolizes its advantages in information technology, bio-technology, aerospace and many other fields.

The US also has global financial superiority since dollar remains the global currency. The quantitative easing may make the global wealth percolate back into the US economy. However, without renewed vigor for real economy in action, the decline of US economic advantages will be inexorable.