Zheng Fengtian

 

Editor's Note: China's 2011 began with a severe dry spell, which has drawn anxieties both at home and abroad. Nearly four months of drought in the northern part was broken only last week. Should China adjust its water-intensive industrial model? How can the nation achieve its goals of the 21st century while contending with a thirsty civilization? Global Times (GT) reporter Chen Chenchen talked to Zheng Fengtian (Zheng), professor and deputy director of School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, the Renmin University of China, and Li Guoxiang (Li), research fellow at Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, on these issues.

GT: It is the third severely dry season in three years. Persistent drought now appears to be a basic national scenario. Will drought continue to haunt China in the 21st century?

Zheng: There have been various guesses and predictions about China's water resource distribution in the coming years. Global climate change will certainly cause more and more frequent extreme weather events. This is a consensus. In China, extreme weather events will also be more frequent.

The amount of global precipitation is fixed, and drought in one region is often accompanied by floods in another. The droughts in northern part of China, the floods in Australia and the blizzards in the US and Europe are interrelated.

Li: At the moment, China is not the driest place in the world. Some Mideastern areas like Israel and a few regions in Australia are much drier. Nevertheless, the scenario in China is not optimistic.

Drought is the most common natural disaster in China. The nation's northern regions will see persistent shortage of water. China's water usage per capita is a fourth of the world's average, and two-thirds of Chinese cities lack water.

GT: What's the impact of the severe drought on China's macroeconomy?

Zheng: In recent days, two pieces of news occupied the China section of foreign media outlets. One is China's interest rate hike while the other is the severe drought.

In China, food prices account for one-third of the consumer price index (CPI). The North China Plain region that produces most of China's winter wheat has been struggling with severe drought for days. Businessmen have cornered the market, hastening the rise of food prices. Changes in food prices are soon reflected in the CPI, and interpreted as aggravated inflation. Countermeasures like interest rate hikes thus emerge.

Li: In 2009, China's wheat production region also experienced a severe drought. But in the end the grain output increased, rather than reduced. The drought does not necessarily entail crop failure. In fact, the appropriate local governments are trying to realize irrigation projects, and China's goal of greater grain harvests hasn't been changed yet.