Yuan focus must shift from dollar

By Huang Yiping
0 CommentsPrint E-mail China Daily, August 10, 2010
Adjust font size:

But many criticisms levelled by international leaders against China's exchange rate policy are unfair and often driven by the economic and political problems plaguing their own countries. One such example is American politicians' tendency to blame China's currency policy for the high unemployment rate in and large current account deficits of their country.

China, however, is a huge country with a huge population and the world's second largest economy. It is thus natural for its policy decisions to evoke strong reactions. So, we cannot rule out the possibility of the US resorting to trade protectionism against China, at least for now. Were this to happen, it would be detrimental to China's economic future. Therefore, it is in China's own economic interest to respond rationally to international criticisms.

China started its managed float exchange rate regime aimed at a basket of currencies in 1994. This has remained the general policy framework despite disruptions during the Asian and global financial crises. Therefore, the critical issue is not the policy regime but the level of exchange rate.

Developments over the past two decades show there exists a wide gap between China's policy preference for gradual change and the international community's expectation of rapid revaluation of the yuan. Thus, striking a compromise between these two factors has become crucial for China's economic future and its future role in the world economy.

There are many ways that China could improve its exchange rate policy. It is important to recognize that rigid exchange rate is no longer compatible with China's large and dynamic economy. A steady revaluation of the yuan is needed by China's own changing economic conditions, and not simply forced upon it by some other country.

For instance, a stronger currency is consistent with China's policy objective of shifting the economy away from exports and investment toward consumption. It would facilitate industries' shift from producing low value-added goods to high value-added products and, therefore, support sustainable economic growth. Although the policy objective should induce two-way exchange rate fluctuations, it seems reasonable to expect an average rise in the yuan of about 5 percent a year against a basket of currencies.

On a more practical level, PBOC should think of de-emphasizing the importance of the bilateral exchange rate against the US dollar. Despite the announcement of the basket regime, PBOC continues to quote the yuan's rate against the greenback as the most important reference. This is misleading, and at times provides excuses for global criticism. It is probably better for PBOC to focus more on an index against a basket of currencies. After all, China's policy objective is to maintain exchange rate stability against a basket of currencies, not the dollar.

Economics textbooks tell us that real exchange rate adjustment can occur either through nominal exchange rate or inflation. China's average consumer price index (CPI) has averaged only 1 percent during the past decade. But it is now entering a new phase of development with steady increase in the costs of labor, land, capital and resources. These imply greater inflation pressure going forward. It might be helpful if the central bank could tolerate a somewhat higher inflation rate in the coming years.

When they were at a development stage similar to what China is in today, Japan (in the 1960s) and South Korea (in the 1980s) experienced close to 6 percent average CPI. Tolerance of a somewhat higher inflation rate in China is not only necessary for overall price adjustment, but also useful for reducing pressure on nominal appreciation.

The author is professor of economics at Peking University's China Center for Economic Research.

 

   Previous   1   2  


Print E-mail Bookmark and Share

Go to Forum >>0 Comments

No comments.

Add your comments...

  • User Name Required
  • Your Comment
  • Racist, abusive and off-topic comments may be removed by the moderator.
Send your storiesGet more from China.org.cnMobileRSSNewsletter
主站蜘蛛池模板: 亚洲av无码一区二区三区电影 | 欧美老妇与禽交| 北岛玲在线一区二区| 草草影院ccyy国产日本欧美| 国产欧美日韩va另类在线播放| 91不卡在线精品国产| 天下第一社区视频在线观看www| 一进一出动态图| 无套内射在线无码播放| 久久国产精品无码一区二区三区| 欧美激情性xxxxx| 国产高跟踩踏vk| 丰满少妇人妻久久久久久| 日韩欧美亚洲另类| 亚洲av永久综合在线观看尤物| 欧美毛多水多肥妇| 亚洲精品视频免费看| 男女肉粗暴进来动态图| 全黄裸片一29分钟免费真人版| 美女裸免费观看网站| 国产一级爱做c片免费昨晚你| 香蕉在线精品视频在线观看2| 国产成人精品无码片区在线观看| 67194在线午夜亚洲| 国产精品后入内射日本在线观看| 97久久精品国产成人影院| 在车上狠狠的吸她的奶| h片在线免费看| 女人18毛片a级毛片| 久久国产三级精品| 最新无码a∨在线观看| 亚洲av无码一区二区三区鸳鸯影院| 欧美乱大交xxxxxbbb| 亚洲午夜久久久久妓女影院| 欧美性色欧美a在线播放| 亚洲最大成人网色| 欧美日韩中文国产一区二区三区 | www好男人精品视频在线观看| 怡红院色视频在线| 一级毛片免费在线| 强波多野结衣痴汉电车|