The silver lining of wage increase

By Stephen S. Roach
0 CommentsPrint E-mail China Daily, July 27, 2010
Adjust font size:

It is important to stress that this 25 percent hypothetical wage-inflation scenario is well beyond the outer bound of any conceivable outcome for China. While minimum wage gains in some provinces may well be rising at such a clip this year, there is good reason to believe that between one-third and one-half of all Chinese manufacturing employees are currently paid above the minimum wage.

Inasmuch as higher paid workers would be largely unaffected by recent actions, total wage increases would be considerably less than those accruing to the low end of the Chinese pay-scale.

At the same time, it is equally important to assess increases in Chinese labor compensation in the context of rapidly rising worker productivity. Based on data from the World Bank, annualized productivity growth in the Chinese manufacturing sector appears to have been running in the 10 percent to 15 percent range since 1990 - not all that dissimilar from gains in real hourly compensation. That would imply only marginal upward pressure on unit labor costs, suggesting little underlying deterioration in Chinese competitiveness.

Moreover, the impact of rising wage pressures also needs to be judged in the context of other dimensions of China's competitive advantage, namely, scale, infrastructure, pan-Asian supply-chain logistics, and the relatively recent installation of state-of-the-art production technologies. China has lost little, or none, of the edge in those critically important areas.

Finally, it is important to note that increasing worker compensation is a key ingredient of China's pro-consumption growth strategy. A serious shortfall in the growth of consumer purchasing power remains a critical problem for an unbalanced Chinese economy. Personal income currently amounts to just 40 percent of Chinese GDP - decidedly sub-par by international standards and down over 10 percentage points from the 51 percent reading in 2000. That needs to change if China is ever going to come to grips with its rebalancing imperatives.

Yet that could well be the real silver lining to this story. To the extent that compensation increases now outstrip the growth in GDP, the labor income share will begin to rise. That sets the stage for increases in household purchasing power, which are critical for pushing China's consumption share of its GDP up from the rock-bottom 36 percent reading in 2009.

Rather than bemoaning the end of low Chinese labor costs, the global debate should focus more on the constructive implications of this important development for the long-awaited pro-consumption rebalancing of the Chinese economy.

The author is non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and a member of the faculty of Yale University. He has the book, The Next Asia, to his credit.

   Previous   1   2  


Print E-mail Bookmark and Share

Go to Forum >>0 Comments

No comments.

Add your comments...

  • User Name Required
  • Your Comment
  • Racist, abusive and off-topic comments may be removed by the moderator.
Send your storiesGet more from China.org.cnMobileRSSNewsletter
主站蜘蛛池模板: 免费现黄频在线观看国产| 婷婷色在线播放| 老太bbwwbbww高潮| 日本欧美视频在线| 免费观看呢日本天堂视频| jizz性欧美12| 性欧美视频在线观看| 亚洲国产一二三| 精品无码成人久久久久久| 国产清纯91天堂在线观看| xxxxx免费视频| 暖暖在线视频日本| 你是我的女人中文字幕高清| 欧美成人性动漫在线观看| 女人隐私秘视频黄www免费| 久久精品国产亚洲av瑜伽| 狠狠色丁香久久综合五月| 国产免费丝袜调教视频| 98久久人妻无码精品系列蜜桃| 日本一卡2卡3卡4卡无卡免费| 亚洲欧美日韩图片| 色一情一乱一伦一区二区三欧美| 国产精品成人扳**a毛片| 一级一级特黄女人精品毛片| 最近中文国语字幕在线播放| 免费a级毛片在线播放| 青娱乐国产精品视频| 国产超清在线观看| 东北老头嫖妓猛对白精彩| 欧美变态老妇重口与另类| 全彩侵犯熟睡的女同学本子| 老司机福利精品视频| 国产亚洲3p无码一区二区| 69国产成人精品视频软件| 已婚同事11p| 久久成人综合网| 欧美日韩一区二区综合 | 亚洲国产综合第一精品小说| 色偷偷91久久综合噜噜噜| 国产在线拍揄自揄拍无码 | 中文字幕手机在线播放|