Not handling a crisis can have consequences for those in power. When US President Lyndon B. Johnson escalated the Vietnamese War, he didn't know that it would prevent him from seeking another term. When President Richard Nixon faced the Watergate Affair, he didn't realize it would end his political life. When Hurricane Katrina hit, President Bush didn't expect that it would become a turning point to his political career. When the oil spill started, Obama didn't react quickly enough.

This situation may seem familiar to former US President George H. W. Bush. When the U.S. won the Gulf War, he was powerful and confident, just like when Obama completed the healthcare reform. Some media said that if the election was held immediately after the war, George H. W. Bush would have been re-elected. However, when the election came, economic issues had become the public's priority. The memory of the Gulf War had faded away from the nation's collective conscience. Bill Clinton, then the governor of Arkansas, used the slogan "It's all about economy, stupid!" and won the presidency of the U.S.

Likewise, in November when the US midterm election is held, healthcare reform will no longer be the nation's focus. The oil spill, along with a high unemployment rate, will likely be the main issue for voters to consider. If things go like that, it is hard to say how many seats the Democratic Party will lose. Also, the hurricane season began in the southern U.S. June 1. The oil spill may last the entire summer, and any large-scale tropical storm or hurricane will blow more oil to the coastal areas and slow down the relief process. The harm to the US economy and the public psychology from the oil leakage has just started.

From the angle of public relations, targeting BP is the first step taken by the Obama administration. To completely distract the attention of the public and media, the government has to do more. Taking firm actions on Iran is a good way to do this. What makes the Chinese worry is whether the US government will make the RMB exchange rate a priority. This has a close political relationship with the unemployment rate – Obama's biggest puzzle. US politicians can manage the issue. New York Senator Charles Schumer, a Democrat, has already begun a new round of pressuring for Renminbi revaluation.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.ccgp-fushun.com/opinion/node_7077605.htm

(The article was translated by Keen Zhang, Zhang Ming'ai and Xu Lin.)