Protest leaders surrendered after military forces moved aggressively to end the massive anti-government protest, yet it remains uncertain if this latest army initiative will quell the violence and bring lasting stability to the country.

Thai Red Shirts' leaders surrendered at noon on May 19 in Bangkok after military forces moved aggressively to end the massive anti-government protest that had endured for two months, yet it remains uncertain if this latest army initiative will quell the violence and pave the way for a path toward reconciliation and long-term stability.

The worsening security situation

As of Wednesday night, violence still was raging across the capital city with thick smoke billowing over the city. Red Shirt protestors set fire to more than 20 spots in the Ding Daeng area alone, including the ultra-modern shopping center, Central World, and a TV station.

A number of Red Shirts protestors refused to accept their leaders' surrender and continued to demonstrate aggressively in the northeast of Thailand, Ubon Ratchathani and Khon Kaen provinces.

Colonel Sansern, the spokesman of the Emergency Operations Command, said dealing with the protests has become more complicated because approximately 500 "terrorists" have mixed with Red Shirts and may plot larger attacks. The Thai government announced that the military operation will continue in areas where troops are required.

Hard to restore economic stability and growth

The Red Shirts' rally has had devastating effect on the tourism-dependent Thai economy. The chaos has kept away international tourists, and it's estimated the industry's recovery will take at least six to nine months.

The retail industry in Bangkok was also heavily hit because demonstrations blocked local commercial districts and forced major retailers to shut. A Thai official said the general economic losses totaled 60 billion Thai Baht.

Thai stocks and the Thai baht dropped sharply after the violence. Thailand could be at risk of severe economic setback, with the GDP reduced by 2 percent if the political turmoil continues till the end of the year, Thailand's finance minister warned.

Difficult to bridge the divide

Thai society is divided into two primary groups, the elite and the poor, and these groups have been at odds for years, culminating in the current civil unrest. Thaksin Shinawatra was elected prime minister in 2001, and since then he came under fire by the "elite," who claimed its economic interests were damaged by Thaksin's rural friendly policies. He was removed from office in 2006 in a bloodless coup.

The contradictions between the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai Party and the ruling coalition are difficult to be reconciled, and the confrontation between the pro-Thaksin Red Shirts and the anti-Thaksin Yellow Shirts has existed for a long time. The people in north and northeast Thailand are strong Thaksin supporters, while the citizens of Bangkok prefer the Democratic Party. It's a convoluted morass lacking the leaders to bridge the differences and move the country forward.

Although the Abhisit administration said the government will proceed with reform to reduce inequality and conflicts of interests, the reform will take time and the effectiveness remains to be seen, and it's still unknown whether Abhisit is the right individual for the job.

The author is a researcher with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

(This article was translated by Ma Yujia)