The United States and European Union hope to enlist Russian and
Chinese support for robust diplomatic steps against Iran over its
contentious nuclear program when the UN Security Council powers
meet on Monday.
Iran's resumption of research that could be used for either
civilian atomic energy or bombs has sparked a flurry of Western
diplomacy in pursuit of a vote by the UN nuclear watchdog to refer
Iran to the Council for possible sanctions.
Moscow, with a US$1 billion stake building Iran's first atomic
reactor, and Beijing, reliant on Iranian oil for its burgeoning
economy, have so far blocked a consensus for referral within the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors.
But Russia warned Iran after it restarted fuel research last
week that it could lose Moscow's support unless it suspended the
work. China, however, said resorting to the Security Council might
"complicate the issue", citing Iran's threat to hit back by halting
snap UN inspections of its atomic plants.
Russian and Chinese receptiveness to an IAEA vote against Iran
is crucial as both are veto-wielding permanent members of the
Council, along with the United States, Britain and France.
Diplomats said the London meeting of permanent Council members
and Germany was aimed at reaching a consensus before an emergency
IAEA board meeting the West wants next month.
"There's some confidence that Russia is increasingly leaning
towards the EU3-US position and will not block referral," said a
diplomat with the EU trio of Germany, France and Britain that last
week called off dragging dialogue with Iran.
But he said China still looked more difficult to persuade.
If the Western powers found Russia and China ready to back
referral, the talks could yield a date for an IAEA board meeting
well ahead of its next scheduled session on March 6.
Suspicion
Iran says its nuclear research and development project is meant
solely to feed an electricity-needy economy. Years of IAEA
investigations have found no firm evidence to the contrary.
But Iran's concealment of nuclear activities for almost 20 years
until it was disclosed by dissident exiles in 2002, a spotty record
of cooperation with the IAEA since, and calls for wiping out Israel
have fired Western resolve to rein in Tehran.
IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei was quoted as saying in a
Newsweek magazine interview he could not exclude the
possibility Iran might be harboring a secret nuclear arms program
distinct from activities known to his agency.
"If they have the nuclear material and they have a parallel
weaponisation program along the way, they are really not very far
-- a few months -- from a weapon," he said.
"We still need to assure ourselves through access to documents,
individuals [and] locations that we have seen all that we ought to
see and that there is nothing fishy, if you like, about the
program," ElBaradei added.
Asked if Iran was buying time to build a bomb, he replied:
"That's why I said we are coming to the litmus test in the next few
weeks."
Western officials say Iran stepped over the "red line" last week
by stripping IAEA seals from equipment that purifies uranium, a key
component in nuclear power or, if enriched to a higher level, in
weaponry.
Oil threat
A German government official told reporters ahead of Chancellor
Angela Merkel's trip to Moscow on Monday that the EU3 was amenable
to reviving its talks with Iran -- but only if it once again
suspended its fuel development program.
An EU3 diplomat in Berlin said Merkel hoped to get an assurance
from Russian President Vladimir Putin that Moscow would not
obstruct Security Council referral and would form a common front
with the EU and United States in handling Iran.
But OPEC giant Iran zeroed in on the weakness of Western tough
talk by saying any crackdown could drive up world oil prices, which
would batter industrialised economies.
Iran is the world's fourth largest exporter of crude oil.
Tehran also said only diplomacy, not threats of Council
referral, could defuse its standoff with the West.
US Republican and Democratic senators said Washington may
ultimately have to undertake a military strike to deter Iran.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said last week using
force against Iran was not an option "at this point".
(Chinadaily.com via agencies January 16, 2006)
