But he also pointed out that McCain's personal image – shaped by his extensive foreign policy experience, commitment to bipartisanship and heroic service in the Vietnam War – makes him the ideal representative for the beleaguered Republican Party. "McCain is the best possible candidate that the Republicans could nominate in a year that does not favor them," Buchanan said.
McCain is trying to distance himself from President George W. Bush, who did not attend the Republican Convention, but he relies on the same conservative voters for support. McCain leads Obama 65 percent to 26 percent among white registered voters who attend weekly church services, according to recent Gallup figures. That is almost identical to where Bush and Democratic opponent John Kerry stood in the 2004 election, with the former leading 66 percent to 27 percent. About 33 percent of non-Hispanic white registered voters attend church every week, and this group forms one of McCain's key constituencies.
The Palin factor
Palin's conservative credentials helped energize the Republican base in key states like Ohio and Michigan, but they won't help with swing voters who are more focused on issues like the economy, education and the war, Buchanan said.
Whether Palin will attract women voters still remains a question. "According to established voting patterns, women do not base their votes on the gender of candidates," Mandel said. "Those who identify themselves as registered Democrats or Republicans vote for the candidates of their party regardless of gender."
She said women identify more often with the Democratic Party and if the Democrats were to nominate a woman for president, women would vote for the Democrats in even larger numbers. There is no reliable data to suggest whether Palin will draw independent women voters to the Republican side, Mandel said.
Despite the enthusiasm that Palin has stirred in the Republican Party and among its supporters, there are some risks in picking her as the vice presidential nominee.
The most obvious risk, in Mandel's opinion, is Palin's "lack of experience and the lack of information available to the public about her vision, background and record, beliefs, principles, policy positions, temperament and so forth."
She is unknown on both the national and international stage, having never traveled outside North America before she became governor. The media have already begun to investigate Palin's background and the greatest risk over the next few weeks is that this scrutiny will reveal something about the Alaska governor that "will make her unacceptable to American voters," Mandel said.
Palin's relative youth and inexperience could also trip her up in her debate with Democratic vice presidential nominee Joseph Biden later this fall.
Now that Palin has made her debut at the convention, she has to prove herself on the campaign trail. She is going to face tough questions about her experience and has to spend precious time getting herself up to speed on McCain's policies and positions. All these will be challenges for Palin and for the Republican Party as well, Buchanan said.
These kinds of things could discourage swing voters if Palin fails to prove that "there is substance behind the flash," Buchanan said. McCain cannot win without strong support from swing voters, he said, because right now there are many more self-identified Democrats than self-identified Republicans.
Although voters might still have doubts over Palin's brief political career, Buchanan said experience would not be a decisive factor in this election.
Aside from that, it is impossible to say with any certainty what American voters will do. There are seven weeks left before the November 4 election, and anything could happen. The voters' decision could be influenced by a new foreign policy crisis, domestic event or the candidates' performance in the debates.
"Without some unexpected event, I think the contest is likely to remain close in national polls," Mandel said. She said the election result would "depend on individual swing states and especially on which of the two campaigns manages to organize the strongest, most dedicated, most organized ground operation that would bring out its vote on Election Day.”
(Beijing Review, Issue No. 38, September 12, 2008)
