Rethink the plan to deploy "missile shields" in Central Asia. Obama has insisted that the anti-ballistic missile defense systems should be deployed only after their effectiveness has been proven. While in office he might review the agreements that the Bush administration has signed with Poland and the Czech Republic to deploy missile defense batteries in the former and an early-warning radar system in the latter. This is also necessary when the defense budget cut comes into the equation. It should also help bring the flame down somewhat from under the simmering US-Russia standoff in Eastern Europe if not dowse it for good.
Stop pushing forward NATO's eastward expansion. Because of differences between the US and some European Union members, the indifference of Poles toward the issue of their country joining NATO and staunch objection by Russia, Obama is not expected to urge the eastward expansion of NATO forward as foolhardily as the Bush administration has done so far. The likelihood of Georgia and the Ukraine becoming NATO members in the next few years is minimal.
Rebuild US-Russia ties. The US and Russia enjoyed a period of close relationship after the Sept 11 attacks, but their bilateral ties began to cool down soon afterwards.
Obama understands that the US needs Russia's cooperation in fighting terrorism, preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction and on many economic issues. That is why he will try to rebuild the US-Russia ties by putting the US on an equal footing with Russia and in a more reconciliatory manner.
An advocate of reducing America's own strategic nuclear arsenal, Obama will seek to negotiate new treaties on strategic arms reduction with Russia when the existing ones expire during his term in office.
If he indeed adopts the stance on these issues as suggested above there is a good chance the US-Russia tension will ease during his presidency. The US must treat Russia as an equal partner and stop asserting its own will on the latter.
I have described how the US strategic retraction might look like after Barack Obama is sworn in, but whether it will happen depends on many factors, with some of them quite unpredictable. Judging by the current situation, however, the above-mentioned scenarios are possible. All we need to do is wait and see.
The author is a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
(China Daily November 26, 2008)
